2003 world oil demand growth unchanged - IEA

Despite a surge of 1.5 mbd of OPEC production over the last three months crude oil prices have stayed high and increased during the first week of December 2002.

Following the general strike in Venezuela and PVDSA declaring “force majeure” on crude and product exports, IEA report that production has been cut to 1 mbd. In September 2002, Venezuela exported 2.2 mbd of crude oil and oil products, 84% of which was exported to the US market.

IEA has slightly increased its oil demand projections for 3Q2002 and 4Q2002 by 0.26 mbd and 0.37 mbd respectively. 2002 oil demand is expected to increase by 0.33 mbd (0.3%) compared to 2001, with China accounting for 80% of the demand increase. The previous estimate was an increase of 0.2 mbd. China is projected to account for nearly 80% or 0.26 mbd of the 2002 demand growth. IEA’s 2003 demand growth estimate of 1.04 mbd remains unchanged.