Global oil demand still fragile - PIW

According to the Petroleum Intelligence Weekly (PIW) of 3 June 2002, the picture of global oil fundamentals suggests a tighter market by mid-year and a need for additional OPEC oil in the second half of 2002. However, several factors affecting both supply and demand may yet alter this outlook. In addition to weak oil product demand and low refinery margins, refinery demand for crude oil is weaker. 

If one looks at refinery demand side by side with the supply of crude oil and other oils that can be processed in a refinery, by this methodology world oil supply exceeded refinery demand throughout the second half of 2001. For most of the current year refinery demand has been higher than oil supply, but dropped in April to May 2002. Refinery crude oil purchasing has been scaled back in line with cuts in refinery runs. During the five first months of this year, compared to the same period in 2001, refinery throughput is 2% lower in Europe, 4.2% lower in the US and 7.5% lower in Japan. According to PIW, some observers say that cuts in refinery runs will last through June, while others cited a less definitive timeline.

INTERTANKO also follows other organisations’ and research institutes’ view on oil supply and demand. Click here to download the IEA world oil supply and demand figures and graphs (MS Excel spreadsheet).