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Thursday, January 18, 2018

Saudi Arabia needs oil price at USD 25 per barrel

According to Petroleum Intelligence Weekly estimates - based on the recent data available for seven of the OPEC members - the oil prices which in theory are needed to balance current accounts during 2002, without drawing down foreign assets or incurring additional external borrowing, range from $7 per barrel to $26 per barrel for local crudes.

Kuwait only needs an estimated $7 per barrel. Libya is also reasonably well placed at $13 per barrel. Both have relatively small populations. Nigeria, with a large population and heavy external debt service requirements, needs the OPEC’s highest price of $26. But surprisingly, Saudi Arabia follows closely, needing $25.50 per barrel. The implication is that, contrary to the last two years, most OPEC members will register current account deficits this year, or much smaller surpluses assuming the OPEC basket averages around $18-$20, implying a Brent price of $19-$21 or so.

Opec MemberOil Price To Balance ($/bbl)Implied Opec Basket ($/bbl)
Saudi Arabia

$25

$26

Kuwait

$7

$8

Iran

19

$21

Libya

$13

$12

Nigeria

$25.5

$24.5

Indonesia

$18

$17

Venezuela

$20

$22

Average/Range

$18

$8-26