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Thursday, January 18, 2018

US oil is expected to become increasingly dependent on imports - EIA

The US economy, as measured by gross domestic product (GDP), is projected to grow at an average annual rate of 3.0% from 2001 to 2025. Total energy demand is projected to increase from 97.3 to 139.1 quadrillion British thermal units (Btu) between 2001 and 2002, an average annual increase of 1.5%.

The energy intensity of the US economy, measured as energy used per dollar of GDP, is projected to decline at an average annual rate of 1.5% through 2025, as continued efficiency gains and structural shifts in the economy offset growth in the demand for energy services. Per capita energy use is projected to increase in the forecast, with growth in demand for energy services only partially offset by efficiency gains. Per capita energy use increases by 0.7% per year between 2001 and 2025.

The average world oil price is projected to increase from $22.01 per barrel (2001 dollars) in 2001 to $26.57 per barrel by 2025, due largely to the impact of higher projected world oil demand. In nominal dollars, the average world oil price reaches $48.11 per barrel in 2025.

US petroleum demand is expected to become increasingly dependent on imports. Net petroleum imports, including both crude oil and refined products, are expected to account for 68% of total petroleum demand by 2025, up from 55% in 2001. Further, despite an expected increase in domestic petroleum refinery distillation capacity of 3 million barrels per day by 2025, the ‘AEO2003’ also forecasts a strong growth in net refined petroleum product imports due to constraints on expanding the capacity of US refineries. Refined product imports are expected to account for a growing portion of total net petroleum imports, increasing from 15% in 2001 to 34% by 2025.