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Wednesday, September 19, 2018

Upturn 2nd half 2002?

The Norwegian Shipbrokers had their annual meeting in Oslo on 10 April, which included a market seminar with Jarle Hammer, Fearnleys, Finn Engelsens jr, Lorentzen & Stemoco, Bjørn Bodding, RS Platou, and Paul Monsen, Marsoft, as speakers.

The prediction for the dry bulk market was quite positive as the orderbook is small and there is an increase in demand in particular in the coal trade. The current dry-bulk orderbook is the lowest since the end of the 1980s.

 

Finn Engelsen talked about 2nd hand prices and showed that 2nd hand prices for VLCCs had no correlation with newbuilding prices but a strong correlation (0.85) with the freight market. He said that it is important not to wait if you want to buy, as it is best to buy at the bottom of the cycle.

 

Paul Monsen believed that OPEC would have to increase oil production in the 2nd part of 2002, which would be positive for the tanker market. He expected the upturn in the economy in the US to spread to Europe and Asia and a better balance between supply and demand in 2003.