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Saturday, October 20, 2018

West African development

The average number of VLCC fixtures per month was 22 both in 2000 and 2001 and 19 during the 1st half of 2002. In addition some 10 Aframax fixtures per months have been reported from W Africa this year.

The spot fixture development can be viewed here.


There are two large oil producer in W Africa.  Nigeria's crude oil production was according to IEA 2.08 mbd in 2001 and has been reduced to some 1.91 the first half of 2002, reflecting the reduced OPEC quota, which currently is 1.787 mbd.  Nigeria’s proven oil reserves are estimated at 22.5 billion barrels. Current Government policy is to raise total reserves to 30 billion barrels, by the year 2003.  Almost all of these reserves are found in relatively simple geological structures along the country's coastal Niger River Delta. Nigeria's main export crude blends are Bonny Light (37° API) and Forcados (31° API). Approximately 65% of Nigerian crude oil is light (35° API or higher) and sweet (low sulphur content).  The oil industry accounts for over 90% of total foreign exchange revenue.  The US total imports from Nigeria stood at some USD8.8 million in 2001, down from USD10.5 billion in 2000 and is projected to decline further in 2002 reflecting the declining oil price. Nigeria is OPEC’s 5th largest oil producer and Africa’s largest oil producer.


Angola's crude oil production has increased by some 400% since 1980.  According to IEA, Angola’s oil  production is projected to increase by 20% in 2002 and was 0.89 mbd in June which is also the projection for 2002. The projection for 2003 is an increase of 0.02 mbd.  Angola is now Africa’s largest non-OPEC producer.  Exploration in Angola peaked in 2000, when drilling success rates were around 70%, but this dropped to 30% last year and drilling activity has fallen.  Angola's crude oil exports to the United States were 0.295 mbd in 2000 (40% of Angola's production for the year).  Angola was the ninth largest supplier (2nd largest non-OPEC supplier outside the Western Hemisphere) of imported crude to the US in 2000.  The US imports from Angola stood at some USD1.1 billion in 2001, down from $3.5 billion in 2000.  Angolan crude is also exported to markets in Europe, Latin America and Asia.  Total recoverable reserves is estimated at 5.4 billion barrels. Oil accounts for 42% of Angola's GDP. Crude oil accounts for 90% of Angola's total exports and more than 80% of government revenues.


Gabon the 3rd largest W African oil producer, has had a steady oil production of some 0,30 mbd over the last three years.


According to Petroleum Intelligence Weekly , ExxonMobil is going to double its output from West Africa over the next four years, and it is counting on the region to provide about one quarter of its global oil production. ExxonMobil is looking to Nigeria, Angola, Equatorial Guinea, and Chad to increase oil production to at least 0.680 mbd, but there is potential for up to 0.807 mbd by 2006-07, when Exxon’s global output should exceed 3 mbd.


The current ExxonMobil W African oil production and projections are;

Angola current oil production 0.04 mbd today, +00.132 mbd with start up 2003/4,

Chad, zero production today, + 0.09 mbd with start up 2003/4,

Equatorial Guinea currently 0.112 mbd, + 0.073 mbd by 2003/4, and

Nigeria currently 0.240 mbd, + 0.120 mbd by 2004/6, which gives:

a current production of 0.392 and an increase to 0.807 mbd by 2006/7