World energy outlook to 2030 - IEA

Tanker market prospects do not look too bad based on IEA’s World Energy Outlook’s reference scenario. Recovery in the world economy is expected to be particularly strong in N America and in the OECD Pacific region. OECD countries will see higher growth from 2003 and world GDP will grow by an average of 3.2% over the period 2000-2010, up from 3-3.1% in the 1980s and 1990s. Growth is assumed to slow down somewhat after 2010.

According to the reference scenario, the world population is assumed to grow by 1.0% per year from 2000 to 2030, slower than the growth rate of 1.7% estimated for the previous three decades. The population in 2030 is expected to be about the same size in China and Africa, or close to 1.5 billion people in each of this two regions. India is forecast to be not far behind with some 1.42 billion people in 2030, with the OECD countries having 1.25 billion and “Other Asia” 1.34 billion people. Altogether a population growth of some 2.15 billion is forecast for the period 2000 to 2030. The strongest growth is expected in the Middle East where the population is expected to double to 327 million people in 2030.

 

All this growth will naturally mean increased use of energy at a growth rate of 1.9% until 2010, with a gradual reduction to 1.85% and 1.0% for the following two decades. The growth rates are expected to be highest for gas, 3.0% for the first decade 2000 to 2010 and 2.7% and 2.4% for the following two decades. Coal is expected to grow at a rate of 1.4% for the whole period until 2030. The growth in oil supply is also expected to be healthy: 1.7% growth in the first two decades and 1.6% in the decade 2020 to 2030. This means that oil supply will grow from 3,605 million tonnes in 2000 (72 mbd), up to 4,272 million tonnes (86 mbd) in 2010, 5,003 million tonnes (100 mbd) in 2020, and 5,769 million tonnes (116 mbd) in 2030.

 

The oil import dependency is expected to increase the most in China from a rate of 34% in 2000 to 60% in 2010 and 85% in 2030, and in OECD Europe from 52% in 2000, to 66% in 2010 and 85% in 2030. Lastly the oil import dependency in East Asia is expected to increase from 30% in 2000, to 52% in 2010 and 70% in 2030.

 

The oil import dependency is not expected to increase so much in North America: only from 36% in 2000 to 37% in 2010 and further to 52% in 2030. The increase is also expected to be moderate in OECD Pacific (S Korea and Japan) but the level was already 90% in 2000 and is expected to grow to 94% in 2010 and 95% in 2030.

 

OPEC countries are forecast to supply most of the increased demand; 35.9 mbd oil production in 2010 (up from 27.1 in 2001), 50.2 mbd in 2020, and 64.9 mbd oil production in 2030. This means an average of 2.9% growth.

 

Non-OPEC countries are forecast to increase oil production to 47.8 mbd in 2010 (up from 45.0 in 2001), but reduce oil production to 45.7 mbd in 2020, and further to 42.1 mbd in 2030. This means a slightly negative growth rate over the period.

 

According to the report, the outlook is best for refined products. Imports supplied just over 2% of total product demand in OECD countries during 2000, but this is expected to increase to 11% by 2030. This will be largely due to the increased imports of North America, which are projected to reach a fifth of the region’s product demand by 2030.

 

Russia, which has expanded its production the most over recent years, is not forecast to increase production more than to 8.5 mbd in 2010, 9.0 mbd in 2020 and 9.5 mbd in 2030. Oil production is forecast to decline both in India and China.