International Oil Demand – EIA

The US Energy Administration (EIA) short-term outlook reports says that the Venezuelan crisis has deflected attention from the fundamental question of whether world oil demand will recover as expected. EIA believes that it will. For example, EIA projects that the US economy will grow faster in 2003 than it did in 2002, contributing to the recovery of US oil demand. EIA’s projection of US economic growth for 2003, which had been cut in last month’s outlook from 3.0% to 2.6% per year, has been lifted to 2.8% in 2003. An acceleration of growth to 4.5% per year in 2004 is expected. Almost half of the 1.3 mbd growth in world oil demand in 2003 is projected to come from the US, with China and other non-OECD countries projected to provide a total of another 0.5 mbd of demand growth next year. In short, an accelerated economic recovery in 2004 could increase world oil demand by 1.4 mbd.