OECD industry stocks still low - IEA

According to the IEA monthly oil market report of 13 June 2003, OECD industry oil stocks increased by 0.72 mbd per day in April. Yet the total stocks closed end April still 157 million barrels below the level in the same period in 2002 and the end April forward cover of 52 days is 4 days below that for the same period last year.

Oil demand growth for 2003 is unchanged from the last month report at a 1 mbd increase over 2002. The impact of SARS on jet fuel demand and weak transport fuel growth generally accounted for a weaker first half of 2003 but more growth has been allocated for the second half.

World oil supply, demand and production in tables and graphs can be viewed here 


FSU export in May 1.0 mbd above level a year ago – IEA

According to IEA, preliminary estimates suggest that net petroleum exports from the Former Soviet Union (FSU) increased from 6.53 mbd in April to 6.80 mbd in May, and were more than 1.0 mbd higher than the same month last year. Petroleum exports from the Black Sea represented the major part of this increase (+0.9 mbd to 3.2 mbd), as there were no major problems in the petroleum transportation infrastructure in May, while the Baltic Sea ports kept pace with petroleum exports.  Some 4.8 mbd of exports were crude oil and 2.0 mbd were products. 

According to INTERFAX 55% of the Russian crude oil exports January to April 2003 went to six countries.  Some 95% of the exports went to neighbouring countries:

Importing country           Million tonnes       %

Germany                            8.2                           12%

Ukraine                              6.4                           10%

Italy                                     6.4                           10%

Poland                               5.3                           8%

Netherlands                      5.3                           8%

Belarus                              5.0                           7%

Others                                30.0                         45%

Total                                   66.6                         100%

On 22 May, the Russian government endorsed a strategy for the country’s energy sector to 2020. According to this strategy, Russia will increase petroleum exports until 2010, after which export levels will stabilise. The country considers the United States  and Asia, including China, Japan and India, as important new destinations for its oil exports. The strategy also addresses the need to expand Russian transportation infrastructures, including a capacity increase for the Baltic Pipeline System to 50 mt/y and construction of a new pipeline from the Kola Peninsula, where a new export terminal at Murmansk is planned. The government is also considering raising transit volumes through pipelines from Russia to Europe, including the Druzhba-Adria pipeline by 5-15 mt yearly. Oil export routes from Siberia to regions such as northeast China and/or the Russian Far East are also planned.