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Wednesday, October 17, 2018

OECD commercial oil stocks continue to decline – IEA

According to the 13 May 2003 monthly IEA Oil Market Report, OECD commercial oil stocks declined by 1.43 mbd in the first quarter of 2003. Stockdraws to oil product inventories were significant and outpaced a modest increase in crude oil stocks. OECD commercial crude and product stocks at the end of the 1st quarter 2003 (1Q03) now cover 50 days of forward demand as compared to 56 days end 1Q02. Total OECD stocks (commercial and government) cover 77 days of forward demand end 1Q03 as compared to 83 days end 1Q02.

World oil production declined by 1.4 mbd in April 2003 with the disruption to Iraqi production accounting for 1.27 mbd. The OPEC 10 (excl. Iraq) quota was increased by 0.9 mbd as from 1 June 2003. However, OPEC aims to cut actual production by 2 mbd versus February/March levels. IEA estimate OPEC 10 April 2003 at 0.534 mbd above the new target. Should oil demand end up at 77.9 mbd (1 mbd above 2002) with zero stock changes, the 2003 call on OPEC crude would be 25 mbd, 0.1 mbd below 2002 actual production. OPEC crude oil production during 1Q03 is estimated by IEA at 26.7 mbd, which is 1.8 mbd above 1Q02 production.

An overview of production developments in the OPEC countries’ can be downloaded from INTERTANKO’s web site.

Total oil demand for 2003 has been lowered by 0.09 from the April report, reflecting the impact of SARS on air travel and on non-OECD Asia demand. A big part of the reduction in the forecast comes from an expected 5.5 percent drop in Chinese oil demand this year due to SARS, which has cut not only air travel but also road travel, and has hit the Chinese economy hard. Oil demand is set to grow by 1 mbd in 2003, or 1.3% over 2002, with the majority of the growth taking place in North America (+0.45 mbd) and Asia (+0.38 mbd). Total non-OPEC production is projected to increase by 1.2 mbd, i.e. 0.2 mbd more than the projected demand increase. The main part of the increase, or 0.6 mbd, is projected to come from the Former Soviet Union (FSU). The FSU seaborne export of 5.02 mbd and total exports of 6.24 mbd are the highest we have recorded since 1994. Graphs can be downloaded from INTERTANKO’s web site

The remainder will be small increases, 0.35 mbd from N America (Canada 0.15 mbd/Mexico 10.18 mbd). Production in the UK is projected to be marginally up (0.07 mbd), in Norway marginally down (0.04 mbd), and on non-PE Africa slightly up (0.09 mbd).

Updated tables and graphs of the world oil supply/demand development can be downloaded from INTERTANKO’s website