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Saturday, October 20, 2018

OPEC crude oil production capacity - IEA

In its monthly oil market report 13 June 2003, IEA has made a number of changes to OPEC sustainable (90 days) crude oil production capacity estimates.

Algeria is actively expanding capacity with direct foreign oil company involvement. IEA has added 0.1 mbd to sustainable capacity ending up at a capacity of 1.2 mbd. Algerian crude oil production in May was 1.12 mbd.

Nigeria is in a similar situation as Algeria. Since December 2002, IEA estimate that production capacity has increased by 0.26 mbd to 2.5 mbd. Crude oil production in May was 2.09 mbd.

Estimated capacity for Saudi Arabia has been revised down to 9.5 mbd from 9.7 mbd. Production rose over 9.5 mbd in mid-March, but IEA estimates that this production level was maintained for four weeks at the most. Saudi Arabian claims to the fact that capacity has increased towards 10 mbd and even 10.5 mbd have been noted by IEA, but doubts persist whether these match the definition of sustainable production used by IEA. Saudi Arabian crude oil production in May is reported at 9.2 mbd.

A lower sustainable capacity is also reported for the United Arab Emirates with a 0.1 mbd reduction to 2.4 mbd. Production in May was 2.29 mbd.

Kuwaiti capacity has been revised upwards by 0.1 mbd to 2.25 mbd. Crude oil production in May was 2.25 mbd.

Latest data for Iran suggest an overstatement of production capacity. Although revised February production figures suggest an output in excess of 3.9 mbd (the existing capacity estimate) output has fallen back recently. The new capacity estimate is 3.75 mbd). May 2003 crude oil production was 3.69 mbd.

Altogether this results in an OPEC (excluding Iraq) sustainable crude oil production capacity estimate of 27.33 mbd. May 2003 production is estimated at 26.12 mbd which is 0.72 mbd above quota and 1.21 mbd below spare capacity.

More information on OPEC crude oil production and quotas in tables and graphs can be found on the INTERTANKO website.