Not Logged In, Login,

Saturday, October 20, 2018

Venezuela strike resulted in a loss of 2.6 mbd in December 2002 - IEA

According to the January 2003 IEA Oil Market Report, the strike in Venezuela resulted in a lost crude and products production of 80 mb or 2.6 mbd in December. In view of this and the upward pressure on prices caused by tight crude stocks in the US, OPEC decided on 12 January 2003 to boost production targets by 1.5 mbd to 24.5 mbd from 1 February 2003.

It may take months after the end of the Venezuelan strike before oil and product exports are normalised and only then at reduced levels. IEA estimates a capacity loss of 0.4 mbd in established Venezuelan fields. At an oil price of USD 20 per barrel, this represents a USD 3 billion loss in export revenues. Venezuelan capacity will eventually come back on line, but in the meantime IEA assesses OPEC spare capacity, excluding Iraq and Venezuela, at 3 mbd compared to December 2002 production.

Despite the slow pace of economic recovery, world oil demand grew faster than expected in late 2002, driven by cold weather, low Japanese nuclear power output and robust gains in Chinese oil demand. IEA has not changed its oil demand forecast for 2003, which remains at a 1.3%, or 1.04 mbd, increase over 2002.

According to IEA, oil demand in the US will increase by 0.37 mbd in 2004, compared to a world increase of 1.04 mbd.

Download details on OPEC and Venezuelan oil production from INTERTANKO’s web site

Contact:Erik Ranheim, Tel: 22 12 26 75
or Jan Svenne,Tel: 22 12 26 77