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Thursday, September 20, 2018

World seaborne oil trade 2001 and forecast 2002-2003 – Fearnleys

As OPEC lost market share and Russia increased exports, measured in tonne-miles crude oil shipments decreased by 2.7% to 7,860 billion tonne-miles and oil product shipments decreased by 0.7% to 2,090 billion tonne-miles in 2002.

Fearnleys estimate a modest increase in seaborne crude oil trade (tonnes) in 2003 of 1.3% and 0.4% in 2004. In tonne-mile terms, crude oil trades are forecast to increase by less than 0.5% in 2003 and 2004. Oil product trades, in tonne-mile terms, are expected to increase by 2% in 2003 and 1.5% in 2004.

Fearnleys observe in the longer perspective a clear and strong trend of reduced oil and energy intensities in mature economies. OECD oil consumption in 2002 was only about 2% higher than 23 years earlier. The most negative long-term factor in the tanker market is changing production and trade patterns for oil. Less dependence on Middle East oil favoured through geopolitics may lead to more oil in pipelines, overland, or over comparatively short sea distances.

Contact: Erik Ranheim or Jan Svenne