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Sunday, September 23, 2018

Confusion over industry phase-out statistics

Members may have noticed the wide variations in the estimates of tankers that have to be phased out by April 2005 according to MARPOL. We have noticed figures that range from as low as some 17m dwt to as high as 28 m.

INTERTANKO is continuously updating its single hull tanker fleet database and its single-hull phase-out data, and these records show that some 22 m dwt has to be phased out by 2005, with some tankers able to trade until end 2005. We estimate the tonnage that has to be phased out by April 2005 to be well below 20 m dwt.

However, an accurate picture cannot be gained from just the overall deadweight. Some sectors contain fewer tankers for phase-out then others. There are only 14 suezmaxes and 14 VLCCs to be phased out by 2005. But there are just over 60 aframaxes, almost 30 panamaxes and about 140 tankers 30-60,000 dwt. There are also more than 280 smaller tankers of 5-30,000 dwt that, according to our fleet list, have to be phased out by 2005; but more than 150 of these (just over 2m dwt) should have been phased out in 2003, and some may therefore be trading in niches (such as vegoils) that are not subject to phase-out, or may have been re-measured to below 5,000 dwt.

We have tried to deduce the reasons for these varying estimates. The INTERTANKO figures are based on the fleet used by the IMO Group of Experts that looked at the consequences of phase out. This fleet figure was provided by LRFairplay and does not include chemical tankers or combination carriers. INTERTANKO has later removed the tankers sold for decommissioning and also taken out FPSOs and FSOs, which do not have to be phased out. The list includes just over 4 m dwt of Category 2 (PL/SBT) tankers built 1982 or before required by MARPOL. The PL/SBT status was checked with the classification societies by the first (ERIKA) IMO Group of Experts.

The reasons for the varying assessments may be the way in which the following tanker types are being treated:

1.          PL/SBT tankers built before 1982

2.          FPSOs/FSOs (are not required to be phased out)

3.          Chemical tankers (are not required to be phased out)

4.          Combination carriers (not required to be phased out from dry trading). Few old OBOs have been trading in oil in recent years

We have checked our figures with various sources and have not received any feedback on major discrepancies. We believe that it is unacceptable for the industry not to have accurate records on such basic information as fleet figures, sp we have placed our figures on the web , and would be extremely grateful for any comments.

Contact: Erik Ranheim