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Thursday, December 14, 2017

Focus on aframaxes

Johan G. Olsen has issued its aframax fleet list, which not only lists the ships, but also the employment of the ships and the charterer. The publication lists 667 existing ships (including 30 OBOs) plus 146 newbuildings. Oil majors or state-owned companies own 123 of the existing aframaxes and 38 of the orderbook. In addition they control 18 tankers which are on long contract to 2006 and beyond. Some 82% of the aframaxes are owned by independent owners. The independent owners have 108 aframaxes on order, 18 of which are fixed for 2006 and beyond.

The four oil majors, BPAmoco, ChevronTexaco, ExxonMobil and Shell Tokyo Tankers, have a total fleet of 37 aframaxes, plus 23 on period charter until 2006 or later. BP has 8 aframaxes on order from Samsung.

The biggest aframax owner is clearly Teekay with 58 aframaxes plus 10 newbuildings. The 2nd biggest aframax operator is Malaysia International Shipping Corp. Bhd with 37 of which 30 are DH and 3 DB/DS and four are on time charter (TC) until 2006 or longer. General Maritime is the 3rd biggest aframax owner with 26 tankers, 10 of which are DH, 6 DB/DS and four are on TC until 2006 or longer. Overseas Shipholding and Centrofin have 16 aframaxes each and Minerva is recorded as having 15 aframaxes.

Altogether there are 13 owners with 10 aframaxes or more, with another 30 having 5-10 aframaxes. The 13 owners with 10 tankers or more have a 32% market share and the 44 owners with 5 tankers or more have a 68% market share. The remaining 213 aframaxes are split between some 115 owners.

The average age of the aframax fleet is 10 years. 5% were built in the 1970s, 25% in the 1980s, 41% in the 1990s, and 29% in this decade. The orderbook is equivalent to some 23% of the existing fleet. There are some 200 single hull or DB/DS aframaxes left, which means that about 68% of the aframax fleet is double hull, 11% DB/DS, and only 21% single hull.

Looking at the phase-out of aframaxes, 14 trading ships have already been denied access to the U.S. (except dedicated lightering areas and LOOP), 5 more trading tankers have been denied access to European Union waters since 2003 with another 5 being barred this year. Only 2 are due for MARPOL phase-out this year and another 12 next year.

The phase-out schedule according to our information is:

 

Phase-out 80-119,999 dwt*

Year

MARPOL*

EU

OPA90

-2002

 

 

14

2003

0

5

19

2004

2

5

20

2005

12

4

8

2006

6

6

7

2007

38

38

1

2008

6

6

9

2009

7

7

11

2010

21

81

53

2011

21

10

1

2012

15

13

1

2013

11

4

8

2014

12

5

10

2015

52

19

41

Total

203

203

203

*there is some uncertainty with regard to the PL/SBT status of some of the tankers

We have recorded 26 aframaxes sold for recycling so far in 2004 ranging from 18 to 30 years: 15 were older than 25 years. The average age of the aframaxes sold for recycling was 26.3 years.

There are numerous aframax trades; the above graph shows the largest ones. The Caribbean to N. America trade of some 185 m dwt represents some 21% of the total market, North Sea to NW Europe/Baltic of 126 m dwt represents some 14% of the total market. The Middle East/Red Sea - Asia and North Africa – Mediterranean trades were each some 80 m dwt, representing some 9% of the total market each. The trades Black Sea - South East Asia - Asia were 44 m dwt and 47 m dwt each representing some 5% of the total market.

The biggest single-hull share of the major trades are first North Africa to the Mediterranean with 72% single-hulls, second Middle East to Red Sea – Asia with 51%, third “all other trades” to Asia with 50%. On the other hand, in the trade North Sea to North West Europe the double hull share was almost 90% and in the trade Caribbean to North America the double hull share was some 95%.