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Wednesday, December 13, 2017

IEA raises 2004 oil demand growth forecast

The International Energy Agency’s (IEA) Oil Market Report for March 2004 increases its world oil demand growth forecast for 2004 again, this time by 0.22 mbd to a growth of 1.65 mbd for the year. World oil demand for 2004 is estimated at 80.2 mbd, which is 2.1% up from 2003. Surging oil demand in China and other non-OECD Asian economies accounts for the increased estimate. The IEA forecasts that Chinese oil demand may increase by a total of 0.58 mbd in 2004, which is an increase of 10.5%. The Chinese economic expansion is boosting neighbouring economies, fuelling oil demand growth in the entire region especially for Taiwan, China, Thailand, and Singapore and to a certain extent India.

Fears of OPEC crude supply cuts, tension in Venezuela and low US gasoline stocks as the US driving season approaches have all combined to lift crude oil prices. February OPEC-10 crude oil supply held steady at 25.8 mbd, 1.3 mbd above November’s target and 2.3 mbd above the target set for 1 April, raising doubts over OPEC’s ability to enforce its scheduled production cuts. Despite end-February progress in expanding export potential, loading delays at the Basrah oil terminal cut 0.1 mbd from Iraqi oil supply.

World oil supply rose 0.06 mbd in February to 82 mbd. Non-OPEC production increased 0.14 mbd while OPEC crude supply fell 0.09 mbd. The call on OPEC crude plus stock change has been raised by 0.3 mbd to 25.8 mbd for 2004 but tends to fall seasonally to 23.9 mbd in the second quarter. 2003 OPEC crude oil production was 26.8 mbd.

OECD industry total stocks fell 0.69 mbd in January, closing 61 mb below their five-year range. Days of forward cover held flat at 51 days for a third straight month.

Click here to view the development of world oil supply and demand on the INTERTANKO website.