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Saturday, December 16, 2017

Incremental OPEC production capacity - IEA

The August 2004 IEA Oil Market Report discusses the current thin margin of OPEC spare oil production capacity which has contributed to recent oil price strengths. Spare OPEC capacity has been below 2 mbd since February 2003 compared to 6 to 7 mbd for much of 2002. Estimating spare capacity is difficult and a subject of intense debate also within OPEC. In the absence of transparent information about field production levels, reserves and infrastructure the market and the analysts rely on a mix of market intelligence, OPEC pronouncements and inference to estimate installed capacity. Capacity levels change constantly depending on changes in field operational practices, current production, reservoir management, new investments, prevailing decline rates and oil price levels.

IEA estimate that OPEC capacity (excluding Iraq and Venezuela) should increase by a net 0.37 mbd by the end of this year and by a further 2.1 mbd in the period 2005-2007. Annual additions amount to 0.68 mbd, 0.85 mbd and 0.17 mbd for 2005, 2006 and 2007 respectively.

The graph below outline OPEC and non-OPEC crude oil production in the period 1971 to and including a projection for 2005.

Please contact: Erik Ranheim  or Jan Svenne