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Friday, September 21, 2018

Oil demand growth stays unchanged at 1.8 mbd for 2005 - IEA

According to the 11 August IEA monthly oil market report, WTI crude futures brushed $45 in early August, up almost $8 from the end of June. As U.S. gasoline demand growth slowed, crude took over from product markets as the driver of rising oil prices, even as stocks were building.

World oil demand growth is forecast at 2.5 mbd for 2004 and 1.8 mbd for 2005, more or less unchanged from the July 2004 report.

World oil supply rose by 0.55 mbd in July, to 83.5 mb/d. OPEC crude gained 0.45 mbd, mostly from Iraq. Non OPEC supply growth remains at 1.2 mbd for 2004 and 2005.

OPEC crude supply averaged 29.1 mbd in July, including 2 mbd in Iraq. OPEC-10 supply was 27.1 mbd, versus a 25.5 mbd target. OPEC spare capacity is 1.2 mbd, though effective levels are lower at around 0.5 mbd. An extra 1.5-2 mbd of surge capacity may be available. OPEC capacity is set to gain 0.4 mbd by the end of the year and a further 0.7 mbd in 2005.

OECD industry oil stocks rose 16 mb in June to 2534 mb. Crude stocks improved within their normal range and product stocks gained, mostly in ‘other products’. The seasonal second-quarter build in total oil inventories came to 0.81 mbd, on par with the five year average. Days of forward demand cover remained low at 52 days, unchanged from May.

The IEA has made several upward adjustments in its oil demand figures, revising non-OECD demand upwards by approximately 0.75 mbd. This adjustment reflects a restatement of under-reported demand and is not a call for more oil. The net effect is an upward adjustment in “observed” demand offset by a downward adjustment in “unobserved” demand.

Click here for the world oil supply and demand development in tables and graphs which can be found on the INTERTANKO website:

Contact: Jan Svenne or Erik Ranheim