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Wednesday, October 17, 2018

Oil demand to grow by 1.4 mbd in 2004 - IEA

According to the 11 February IEA monthly oil market report, world oil supply was 82.1 mbd in January 2004. Non-OPEC oil production increased by 0.13 mbd while OPEC production fell by 0.14 mbd since January. The rise in non-OPEC production came from Russian, North Sea and Brazilian growth. OPEC-10 crude oil production was 25.8 mbd in January, 1.3 mbd above the November 2003 target. Iraq’s current oil production is estimated at 2 mbd.

Global oil demand is projected to increase by 1.4 mbd in 2004 to 79.9 mbd, an upward revision of demand increase of 0.2 mbd since January. Oil demand is growing in some developing economies and in particularly the two most populous nations in the world, China and India, while it is temporary slowing in the OECD. Chinese oil demand is projected to increase to 5.83 mbd in 2004, up from 5.49 mbd in 2003 and 4.95 mbd in 2002. Indian oil demand is projected to increase by 0.1 mbd to 2.4 mbd in 2004.

OECD industry oil stocks fell 1.26 mbd in December and 0.46 mbd through the 4th quarter of 2003, closing 56 mb above 2002 levels. Forward demand cover remains at a historic low, covering 51 days of demand. Commercial crude oil stocks were tight in the US, but returned to more comfortable levels in Europe and the Pacific.  According to the weekly figures from the US EIA, commercial stocks as of 6 February totalled some 269m barrels which was 0.4% below the level the same date in 2003 and 9.3% below the average level of the last three years.  Strategic US stocks were, on the other hand, 642m barrels which is a record high and 7.1% above the same level a year ago and 10.5% above the average level the last three years.

Click here to view the oil supply and demand development in tables and graphs

Contact: Erik Ranheim