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Monday, December 11, 2017

Increased aframax trade from the Baltic Sea

We have received a study of aframax liftings from the Baltic Sea, based on data  collected by Riverlake Shipping in Geneva. These liftings represent about 80% of the total volume moving. 

The volumes recorded by Riverlake were:

Port

2001

2002

2003

2004

2004*

Aframax liftings

Capacity

Flow

Primorsk

200

10,000

18,000

38,000

50,000

43,800

Tallinn

8,000

10,000

9,000

10,000

17,400

16,300

Gdansk

5,000

4,000

7,000

8,000

NA

NA

Butinge

5,000

6,000

11,000

7,000

8,000

7,200

Ventspils

11,000

6,000

3,000

2,000

19,900

7,300

Total

29,200

36,000

48,000

65,000

65,000

44,000

*Source USD Energy Intelligence Administration (EIA)

Summer-time “ship-to-ship transfers” from St. Petersburg not included

 

The table shows that Baltic aframax or bigger stems have more than doubled since 2001 or increased by an average of 30% per year. The port of Primorsk has been the main driver of this expansion, accounting for close to 60% of the oil, and further expansion is planned.  

According to Riverlake, the Baltic Sea is winning market share from the Black Sea because there are no Straits delays, because ports are less affected by bad weather (wind and swell) than Novorossiysk, and because the Baltic Sea is also closer to trans-Atlantic markets. Even when the port is ice restricted, Primorsk is still exporting more than 4.5 m tonnes per month. With a capacity of more than 50 million tons per year, the port is competing with Novorossiysk for the position of Russia’s leading oil export terminal. 

Tallinn, the main Baltic fuel oil port, has also expanded exports since 2001 and is now in second position. 

The port of Ventspils was part of the Baltic Pipeline System (BPS) until 2002 when Transneft cut the pipeline flow. Since then it has lost most of its crude liftings and since September 2004 aframax-size exports are close to nil. The terminal remains active on the product side (gasoil and Unleaded Motor Gasoline), mainly shipped on handymax and panamax-size vessels. 

The port of Butinge is part of the BPS and the terminal is controlled by JSC Mazeikiu Nafta, whose main shareholders are Yukos and the LithuanianState. In 2003, the port underwent significant expansion, increasing exports by more than 70%. Since summer 2004, the cargo flow has been erratic (from 1 to 7 per month) due to higher refining margins (crude was used by the Mazeikiai refinery) and due to Yukos’ problems with the RussianState. Riverlake indicates that in the near future, Transneft could cut the pipe’s flow. Butinge would then become a crude oil importer. 

Total Baltic oil exports in 2004, according to the International Energy Agency (IEA), were some 3 mbd (some 149 m ts).

There were about 20 active charterers, each with a market share of 0.5% and above, that were active in the Baltic in 2004. The 10 biggest were:

Charterer

M ts

%

Size rank in port

Sibneft

8,360

13%

2nd largest (15%) from Primorsk

Petroval/Yukos

7,518

12%

Largest (54%) from Butinge

Europetroleum

7,328

11%

Largest (19%) from Primorsk

Litasco/Lukoil

6,016

9%

3rd largest (14%) from Primorsk

Clearlake/Gunvor

5,863

9%

Largest (38%) from Tallinn

Mercuria/J&S

5,730

9%

Largest (69%) from Gdansk

BP-TNK

4,225

6%

 

Vitol

3,095

5%

 

Fortum

2,996

5%

 

Ursa/Taurus

2,788

4%

Largest (32%) from Ventspils

Others

10,873

17%

 

Total

65,090

100%

(Assumed to be 80% of volume)

Tracking figures from Fearnleys show that virtually all exports from the Baltic carried in tankers larger than 50,000 dwt were transported in double hull tankers. Single hull tankers are since October 2003 no longer allowed to trade when carrying heavy grade oils in Europe.

Contact: Erik Ranheim