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Tuesday, December 12, 2017

BP Oil Review

Good statistics are a precondition for understanding the energy market and to be able to project the future. BP’s review is 50 years old and one of the most used sources of oil statistics in the world. Christof Rühl, BP’s Deputy Chief Economist, had no sensations to present in Oslo during his round the present the BP Review to the market.  However, today the world does not need sensational energy news, but rather assurance that the energy market is working and that there is enough energy to provide the world’s future needs.That is what Rühl has done. He added that throughout the history of oil, the economists have proved to be right about future development and not the geologists.

Studying the Review provides is thought provoking and gives one a very good insight to the energy markets. 

  • Despite record oil prices, out of the roughly 50 countries that BP listed, 24 reduced oil production in 2005 over 2004 - the UK by the most. The hurricanes affected the US the most (0.398 mbd); then came the UK (0.220 mbd) and Norway (0.219 mbd),
  • 40% of oil movements were from the Middle East
  • The single biggest oil trade was from the Middle East to other Asia Pacific (ex Japan/China), which was 7.5 mbd or represented 15% of world oil Inter-area movements 2005
  • The second biggest oil trade was from the Former Soviet Union to Europe, which was 5.8 mbd or represented 12% of world oil Inter-area movements 2005
  • The third biggest oil trade was from the Middle East to Japan, which was 4.3 mbd or represented 9% of world oil Inter-area movements 2005
  • Just over 27% (13.5 mbd) of Inter-area movements 2005 were to the US, a little more than movements to Europe (13.3 mbd).
  • 35 oil producing countries maintained oil reserves, 7 countries reduced reserves (Mexico the most, -7.7%), 8 countries increased oil reserves (India the most, +6.4%)
  • China increased oil consumption by 0.216 mbd. Next were Saudi Arabia, Iran, Mexico, Singapore and Former Soviet Union which all increased oil consumption by some 0.08 mbd each and which are all (bar Singapore) major oil producers
  • India reduced oil consumption the most (0.089 mbd)
  • Coal was the fastest growing fuel (+5%) in 2005 (gas + 2.3%, oil+1.3%)