Not Logged In, Login,

Monday, December 18, 2017

EIA estimates country-level crude oil distillation capacity for 215 countries

The Energy Information Administration (EIA) has just issued a table providing estimates of country-level crude oil distillation capacity for 215 countries from 1 January 1970 to 1 January 2006 

China heads the growth table over the last ten years, as well as over the last year when it was streets ahead of any other country – hardly surprising when it has been one of the drivers of the tanker market for the last few years. It is now the second-largest crude distillation country in the world (with 6.25m bbls/day) after the U.S. (17.1m). In third place is Russia (5.3m) with Japan close behind (4.7m). 

Russia and the FSU countries are all among those countries whose crude distillation has declined, but its crude oil exports from Baltic and Black Sea are vital to the health of the tanker market. 

The 10 largest distillation countries are: 

Country

mbd

Canada

2.017

Saudi Arabia

2.095

India

2.255

Italy

2.324

Germany

2.428

Korea, South

2.577

Japan

4.672

Russia

5.341

China

6.246

United States

17.126

Others

40.052

Total

87.133

The U.S. refinery shortage will increase, which will mean increased import of products. The Chinese refinery expansion is also too small to meet increasing demand.  The Middle East (Saudi, Kuwait, Oman) have some expansion plans, but also a strong increase in consumption. The biggest new export capacity seems to be coming from India. All in all world refinery capacity probably will continue to tighten this year. 

The biggest capacity increases last year, 1 Jan 2005 to 1 Jan 2006 were: 

Country

mbd

France

0.028

Aruba

0.041

United Kingdom

0.052

Belgium

0.055

Serbia and Montenegro

0.057

Germany

0.105

Poland

0.117

UAE

0.267

Saudi Arabia

0.350

China

1.596

Others*

-0.335

Total change

2.333

There are 11 countries with a total decline in capacity of 0.384 mbd. 

The biggest capacity increases in the last 10 years 1 Jan 2005 to 1 Jan 1997 were: 

Country

mbd

Iraq

0.250

Germany

0.320

Korea, South

0.365

Saudi Arabia

0.439

Taiwan, China

0.450

UAE

0.568

Brazil

0.652

India

1.168

United States

1.674

China

3.379

Others*

-0.115

Total change

9.150

The Former Soviet Union countries have suffered the biggest declines over the last 10 years: Russia (-1.4 mbd), Ukraine (-0.4 mbd), Japan (-0.3 mbd) and Belarus (-0.2 mbd), Bulgaria (-0.2 mbd), Georgia (-0.1 mbd), and Kazakhstan (-0.1 mbd). 

Contact: Erik Ranheim