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Thursday, December 14, 2017

Non-OPEC oil supply in 2007 to outstrip demand

OPEC expects non-OPEC supply in 2007 to outstrip demand by 0.5 mbd. The biggest increases in non-OPEC supply are expected in Africa (0.51 mbd), the Former Soviet Union (FSU) (0.51 mbd) and North America (0.35mbd). In the FSU the increase is expected to take place in Russia (Sakhahlin project), Azerbaijan and Kazakstan. Oil production is also expected to increase by some 0.1 mbd each in W Europe, Latin America and China.

 

Non OPEC supply in 2006/2007 – MBD Source: OPEC

 

2006

1Q07

2Q07

3Q07

4Q07

2007

07/06

North America

14.38

14.69

14.75

14.67

14.83

14.74

0.35

Western Europe

5.46

5.59

5.50

5.43

5.77

5.57

0.11

OECD Pacific

0.57

0.65

0.62

0.66

0.65

0.65

0.07

Total OECD

20.42

20.93

20.87

20.76

21.26

20.96

0.54

Other Asia

2.67

2.63

2.55

2.67

2.76

2.65

-0.02

Latin America

4.49

4.62

4.59

4.59

4.68

4.62

0.13

Middle East

1.82

1.82

1.82

1.80

1.80

1.81

-0.01

Africa

4.04

4.33

4.42

4.62

4.80

4.54

0.51

Total Develpg.

Countries

13.02

13.41

13.38

13.68

14.04

13.63

0.61

FSU

12.04

12.27

12.50

12.62

12.81

12.55

0.51

Other Europe

0.15

0.15

0.15

0.15

0.15

0.15

0.00

China

3.70

3.77

3.75

3.78

3.86

3.79

0.09

Total "Other regions"

15.89

16.19

16.39

16.55

16.81

16.49

0.60

Non-OPEC production

49.32

50.53

50.65

50.99

52.11

51.07

1.75

Processing gains

1.91

1.93

1.93

1.93

1.93

1.93

0.02

Non-OPEC supply

51.23

52.46

52.58

52.92

54.04

53.00

1.77

Since the International Energy Agency (IEA) as well as OPEC expect oil demand to be driven by increased demand in China, the Middle East and the U.S., this does not bode well for the tanker market as the supply increase in North America is expected to outstrip the demand increase. The increased oil demand in the Middle East will be of little benefit to the tanker market and even China is expected to increase self-sufficiency marginally. More oil from W Africa (or perhaps Venezuela) to China could alleviate the situation somewhat.

 

Another marginal factor that will influence oil supply is bio-diesel supply, which was estimated to be 14,000 barrels per day in 2000 in Europe and is projected to be 83,000 barrels per day in 2006.

 

Contact: Erik Ranheim