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Monday, December 18, 2017

Oil demand trends and U.S. oil imports remain steady

According to the Energy Information Administration (EIA), U.S. net oil imports are projected to remain steady: 12.1 mbd in 2004, 12.35 mbd in 2005, 12.3 mbd in 2006 and 12.35 mbd in 2007. 

According to EIA, global oil demand growth is revised down slightly from 1.49 mbd to 1.47 mbd. This has rebounded from a hurricane-depressed 1.05 mbd in 2005, with the recovery weighted towards the second half of 2006. However oil demand trends for 2006 remain unchanged with growth at 1.8%. That this remains close to the long-term trend of oil demand growth is a testimony to the current strength of the global economy. If oil prices were not so high, oil demand would undoubtedly be much stronger. 

World oil supply fell 0.125 mbd in March to 84.5 mbd. OPEC, North American and North Sea production outages outstripped higher non-OECD production. A weaker first half trimmed 0.035 mbd from 2006 non-OPEC supply, but new field start-ups are still boosting this year’s growth to 1.2 mbd, supplemented by 0.275 mbd of OPEC NGLs. Weaker performance is now expected from Canada, Norway, Australia, Russia, Brazil and Angola in the first six months of 2006. This is partly offset by stronger expectations for the latter half of the year.

March OPEC supply fell by 0.215 mbd to 29.7 mbd on the basis of Nigerian outages and lower Iranian and Iraqi exports. Damage to Iraq’s northern pipeline suggests exports to Ceyhan are unlikely for some time. Cold weather and supply outages lifted the first quarter (1Q) call on OPEC crude and stock change 0.7 mbd above OPEC supply, pointing to a draw in 1Q global balances. 

OECD total industry oil stocks fell by 13m barrels in February as draws in distillates and other products in the Atlantic Basin outpaced builds in U.S. and Pacific crude stocks. Upward revisions to January preliminary data put total inventories at 2616m barrels, 46m barrels above last year. OECD forward demand stock cover came to 53 days, one day higher than last year and last month. 

Contact: Erik Ranheim