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Wednesday, December 13, 2017

Tanker fleet growing faster than oil demand

Over 2004 and 2005 the tanker fleet has increased by 55 VLCCs, 39 suezmaxes, 71 aframaxes, 53 panamaxes and 129 tankers of 10-60,000 dwt. This year only 18 VLCCs and 24 suezmaxes will be delivered, but 53 aframaxes and a record 52 panamaxes will emerge from the shipyards into the market place, in addition to 166 tankers of 10-60,000 dwt. This tonnage will expand the fleet considerably, and even with the phasing out of some 3 m dwt of ageing single hulled tankers, we are likely to see an approximate 6.5% increase in the fleet.  

Nevertheless, VLCC fixture activity level in the last two months has been approximately the same as in the previous two years, and the International Energy Agency (IEA) projects a 2.1 %, or 1.8 mbd, increase in oil demand in 2006.   

The number of VLCC fixtures within any given month ex AG/Red Sea

Year           

Jan

Feb

Mar

Apr

May

Jun

Jul

Aug

Sep

Oct

Nov

Dec

Total

2001

108

95

107

105

94

79

99

100

86

94

83

83

1,133

2002

87

70

82

73

78

64

76

74

77

92

79

88

940

2003

98

96

100

94

100

93

103

94

106

90

102

97

1,173

2004

100

102

107

105

110

104

108

103

110

105

107

111

1,272

2005

112

95

95

103

110

101

109

106

103

106

108

91

1,239

2006

100

103

76

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

279

Aver-

age

101

94

95

96

98

88

99

95

96

97

96

94

1,156

Source: MST database managed for DVB Bank N.V

  

T/C equivalent ($/day)

3-Feb-06

10-Feb-06

17-Feb-06

24-Feb-06

1-Mar-06

VLCC AG – Japan 250’

83,355

51,198

78,995

43,316

30,714

Suezmax WAFR – USAC, 130’

66,439

68,364

68,786

36,588

36,383

Aframax N Sea-Cont 80' dwt

20,924

29,935

46,153

21,116

18,963

Clean Caribs-USAC 38' dwt

22,062

21,410

20,571

17,906

17,130

Clean Cont-USAC 37' dwt

20,131

22,296

19,730

17,624

15,083

 With fleet growth of 6.5% and demand growth of only 2.1%, more long hauls are needed to maintain tonnage balance. Non-OPEC supply is projected to increase by 1.2 mbd, which leaves 0.6 mbd to be met by OPEC. Hostilities in Nigeria may mean that it will be the east Gulf that will supply the incremental need for OPEC oil, which is positive for tonne mile demand.  

Contact: Erik Ranheim