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Thursday, November 15, 2018

European oil imports to increase as its oil production declines

Europe is the world’s biggest oil importing area. In addition to importing 13.2 mbd of crude oil, Europe also imports some 6 mbd of oil products. However, most of the latter is intra-European trade.



The figures for European oil and product imports can be viewed on our web.


Clearly the biggest and, over the last ten years the fastest-growing, source of European oil imports is the Former Soviet Union (FSU), mainly Russia, from which Europe takes some 4.5 mbd of crude oil and 1.1 mbd of oil products. Imports from the FSU were increasing until last year but have now levelled out, as have European crude oil imports in total. European crude oil imports peaked in 2004 at 13.3 mbd, but have declined slowly and were 12.7 mbd in the two first months of 2007.


Europe is likely to increase its crude oil imports as European oil production follows a projected decline. According to the Energy Information Administration (EIA), the U.K.'s crude oil production will decline to 0.5 mbd in 2030, down from 1.7 mbd today, while Norway’s total crude oil production is forecast to decline from 3.0 mbd today to 1.4 mbd in 2030. The decline in European crude oil production will probably mainly be made up by Russian and Caspian oil. Russia is planning another pipeline to Primorsk, but this will partly replace the Druzba pipeline. North Europe will therefore eventually start to import more crude oil from regions further away.


On the oil products side, European countries’ imports have already increased from 4.5 mbd in 1999 to 6.3 mbd in 2006.


Contact: Erik Ranheim