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Friday, December 15, 2017

The aframax fleet

Johan G. Olsen (JGO), shipbroker, has issued a new aframax tanker fleet report that contains more ships than ever. In September there was a fleet of some 765 aframaxes (including 21 OBOs), of which the oil companies and state-owned companies had 216, and 146 were fixed until 2009 or later. That left 403 aframaxes in the spot market. JGO lists 304 tankers on order, 16 of which were reported to be fixed until 2009 or later.

 

The 10 biggest owners have 32% of the market, the three biggest owners, Teekay, MISC and General Maritime, have 9%, 6% and 4% respectively, and the other 7 owners some 2% share of the aframax fleet each.

 

The aframax fleet is about 81% double hulled (by dwt) and 10% single hulled (SH). The remainder is mainly double sided. 

 

 

Some 270 aframaxes of 28.5 m dwt are still to be delivered 2008-2010 and about 80 of 7.7 m dwt are to be phased out - assuming that all SH tankers are phased out by end 2010. However it is likely that at least some SH tankers will be able to take advantage of the provisions to trade after 2010 until the age of 25 years old.

 

According to Clarkson, the aframax orderbook has been placed by more than 80 owners at some 25 different ship yards. The aframax yards with 20 orders or more are Hyundai HI (49 orders), Tsuneishi Zosen (29), Samsung HI (28), Sasebo HI (27), New Times SB (21), Sumitomo HI (20), and Waigaoqiao SY (20 orders). These yards represent two thirds of the aframax orderbook.

 

We have recorded 34 period contracts so far in 2007 with an average age of 6.3 years and an average period of 2.2 years. Rates have ranged from USD 17,800 per day to USD 35,000 per day.

 

Aframax period contracts

 

Year

Age age

Average dwt

Number contracts

Average Period

Average TC Rate

1997

9.0

94,737

44

1.7

18,051

1998

7.0

95,491

21

1.6

17,276

1999

10.9

94,102

30

0.9

11,383

2000

5.9

98,586

41

1.3

16,626

2001

5.9

100,887

36

1.9

17,936

2004

6.8

99,917

55

2.1

24,066

2005

6.1

103,546

44

2.2

31,501

2006

8.1

103,554

49

1.6

29,953

9.5m07

6.3

103,554

34

2.2

27,855

 

The graph below shows the aframax supply situation, assuming a balanced market end 2006 and all SH tankers removed by 2010, and with double bottomed or sided trading until the age of 25 years old. In addition to the required phase-out we have assumed some 8 conversions to ore carriers or others in 2009 and 2010. We have recorded 6 conversions this year and assume another 2 conversions. According to these assumptions, a surplus is building up that will reach a maximum in 2009 of 13 m dwt. No new  deliveries are needed before 2014 to reach the same market balance that prevailed end 2006.

 

 

Contact: Erik Ranheim