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Thursday, September 20, 2018

Tanker demand forecast

Estimates from Fearnley Research show that overseas seaborne oil trade (based on 10 months and excluding some local trades) is expected to decline 44 million tonnes to 1,480 million tonnes in 1999, to increase to 1,535 in 2000 and 1,565 in 2001.

Due to changing trading patterns towards shorter trades, the more important tonne-mile development over the last years have increased less than the development of the volume of oil trade. After a moderate decline to 7,793 billion tonne-miles last year, the trade is expected to decline considerably to 7,500 billion tonne-miles in 1999, but is projected to increase to 7,700 bn t—m in 2,000 and 7,850 bn t-m in 2001. As a comparison, the trade was 10,408 billion tonne-miles in 1977 when tanker trade was at its highest, and 4,007 billion tonne miles in 1985, when the trade bottomed out. This means that trade this year will be 28% lower that the maximum in 1977 but almost the double it was in the mid 80s.

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