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Monday, October 22, 2018

MARKET INFORMATION

48 OUT OF 311 SUEZMAXES FIXED UNTIL 2002 AND LATER

Johan G. Olsen shipbrokers have published their regular list of Suezmaxes, which includes time charters and other information on each tanker.  88 of the 311 Suezmaxes are owned by oil companies or are state owned.  The INTERTANKO membership includes 150 Suezmax tankers giving a 67% share of the independent Suezmax fleet. Frontline has by far the biggest Suezmax fleet with 28 tankers.  For a list of all the biggest Suezmax owners and more facts on Suezmaxes see http://www.intertanko.com/members/tankermarket/

EIA SHORT TERM ENERGY FORECAST FOR THE US

Oil demand in the US is forecast to increase by 0.4 mbd to 20.0 mbd in 2001, whereas OECD demand is forecast to increase by 0.7 mbd to 43.6 mbd. US oil supply is forecast to remain stagnant at the 2000 level of 9.1 mbd in 2001, and total OECD supply is forecast only to increase marginally by 0.1 mbd to 20.0 mbd, incidentally the same level as the “US 50 states” oil demand.

Total world oil supply is forecast to increase by 1.7 mbd to 78.6 mbd in 2001, where the biggest increase of 0.9 mbd is assumed to be supplied by the OPEC countries. Non-OPEC production is expected to increase by 1.3 mbd in 2000 and by another 0.8 mbd in 2001, primarily from the former Soviet Union, which is projected to increase supply by 0.4 mbd to 8.2 mbd in 2001.

The projections are based on crude oil prices falling by USD 4-5 before the end of the winter due to excess supply. US heating oil stocks remain well below normal indicating a need for increased imports in case of a colder than normal winter.
For the full 47-page report, please visit the website  Short-Term Energy forecast

SAUDI OIL EXPORT REVENUES ESTIMATED AT USD 67 BILLION FOR THE YEAR 2000

This is up 76% from 1999. The Saudi Arabian government debt is still USD139 billion, according to EIA, and reserves minus gold in 1999 amounted to USD17.0 billion. Saudi Arabia’s oil production in 3Q00 is estimated at 8.77, or about 0.25 mbd above 2Q00 level. However, several OPEC countries (Venezuela, Nigeria and Iran) produced less oil in the 3rd compared to the 2nd quarter of 2000 and total OPEC production of 26.20 mbd in the 3rd quarter is therefore estimated to be at the same level as in the 2nd quarter.  The oil price has been above OPEC’s price band of USD22-28 per barrel since 11 August and Saudi has indicated a commitment to increase production until prices decline to this band. EIA estimate that the current oil production capacity is at its lowest “non-disruption” level in 30 years.

“E-COM”  - TURNING TO PAPER

At a time when the focus is on electronic communication it was surprising to receive a large paper in A3 format called Digital Ships, with information on a number of shipping WWW sites.

We continue with our series of weekly articles on “E-com” and have received a number of additional interesting comments this week.  One of our associate members in Italy, Ennio Palmesino, President Genoa Sea Tankers, recalls the failure of the Reuters shipping system, which broke into the tanker market more than 20 years ago. Despite the high cost of membership, most brokers accepted this new way of fast communication, but at the same time expressed fears that if business could be done on line, the brokers would lose ground and the principals would find a way of contacting each other directly. In the end the powerful Reuter communication system was only used for exchanging general market information, and the real business was done over the phone, as it is now. That is why Reuter shipping system died. Mr. Palmesino also stresses the confusion created by the lack of a common standard in ship-fixing.

Barry Parker, Internet Shipping Group, says that the developments of the past year, with charterer-led sites, owner led sites, and the success of pooling in the physical tanker market, all confirm that mega exchanges do have a place, but they co-exist with Sell Side sites, Originators (Buy side sites), E Speculators (who trade positions to liquefy the marketplace), and solution providers who assist businesses in hooking up. Barry Barker also describes a network of unbounded direct connections, where members use common tools to share files directly among themselves rather than going to a central place to get the files. The ability to share files such as ship descriptions, questionnaires, calculations, charter-parties, and other documents may be more in line with the expectations of the maritime marketplace.

We congratulate sealogistics.com on its first tanker fixture The trading partners involved in the first 'live' online trading session included Stentex, the Texaco and Stena Bulk marine alliance company; Skaugen PetroTrans, a leading US lightering company handling some 1 million bbls/d of crude imports; and shipbroker LoneStar R.S. Platou/Braemar.  This is probably historic although, of course, all shipping.coms need a critical mass in order to influence the market as such.

Our series of articles on e-commerce from May this year to date can be found in the members’ area, tanker market section on our website. http://www.intertanko.com/pubupload/E-Commerce.DOC

We would welcome further comments from members and associate members. Please send E-mail to:

erik.ranheim@intertanko.comor jan.svenne@intertanko.com