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Wednesday, January 17, 2018

MARKET INFORMATION

Plotting the way ahead

For a copy of INTERTANKO’s Chairman, Westye Høegh, article in Lloyd's Shipping Economist December 2000 outlining a tanker scenario for 2010, please link to

http://www.intertanko.com/pubupload/LLOYD004.DOC

Selected forecasts of global oil demand for 2001 - PIW

PIW says that the global oil demand picture is a great puzzler. The presumably depressing affect of recent high oil prices on consumption has been slow to show up in official data. On the contrary, global balances point to the possibility that demand this year has been systematically undercounted — not over-counted, as one might expect — since increases in OPEC suggests that 2001 oil demand may be substantially less robust than many analysts are forecasting. Developing economies, especially those with currencies that are weak against the US dollar, are highly vulnerable to high oil prices. Even in the US, concerns about economic growth have reportedly prompted the Federal Reserve Board to consider an interest rate cut. That cut hasn’t come yet, but it may soon. Following a period of rapid, US-led expansion in the global economy, there are mounting signs that the rate of world economic growth is likely to decelerate noticeably in 2001 from this year’s estimate of just over 4%. This year is likely to mark the cyclical high for the global economy, which was boosted by exceptionally strong US growth, recovery in Europe, and a sharp rebound in emerging economies. Next year’s anticipated slowdown could well crimp expansion in global demand for oil above and beyond the oil-price impact. As if the economic uncertainties were not enough, confusion about the timing and severity of the impact of recent high oil and gas prices has left analysts sharply split on next year’s oil demand outlook. The table  http://www.intertanko.com/pubupload/Oil 2001.XLS displays several recent forecasts of 2001 oil demand. Although most see global oil demand growth exceeding 2% in 2001 following this year’s 1.2%, the risks appear to be mainly on the downside. If the weather is normal in 2001, as forecasts assume it will be, oil demand will get a boost. Despite bouts of extremely cold weather in late January on the US East Coast and a bitter start to the winter in the US Midwest and East Coast in the last few weeks, weather for 2000 will probably turn out to be warmer than normal on a global basis (Petroleum Intelligence Weekly - PIW).

Record high products imports in Europe in 2000 - OECD

According to the OECD MONTHLY OIL SURVEY Sept. 2000, OECD Europe product imports in 2000 the first three quarters of the year has been 4.88 mbd, or 0.32 above last year’s level an the highest we have recorded since 1988.  Product imports in the third quarter was on average 4.98 mbd, also the highest recorded.  The biggest suppliers of products to OECD Europe are the Netherlands (17%) and former USSR (14%).  For development since 1988 see: http://www.intertanko.com/pubupload/Europe-US-Japan oil imports.XLS

OECD North America imports of products in 3rd quarter is also record high – 1.81 mbd - according to the OECD statistics. Products imports in 1998 was 1,16, and 1.71 mbd in 1999. See also our web page http://www.intertanko.com/members/tankermarket/

US crude oil imports declining trend since August - API

According to API, the US crude import in 2000 the first ten months of the year has been 8.338 mbd, or 0.118 above last year’s level. However, imports has been declining every month since August when it peaked at 9.27 mbd.  Product imports over the last three months has been higher than for the same months in previous years, but overall products imports for the year Jan-Nov (2.146 mbd) is marginally below last year level. Domestic crude production in the lower 48 and for Alaska declined 1.8 mbd in November compared with a year earlier. Following a smaller rise in October, crude oil inventories gained another 6 million barrels in November. Still, they remained the lowest for the month since the 1970s as market uncertainties continued to make the holding of inventory beyond current needs risky. Link to: http://www.intertanko.com/pubupload/Europe-US-Japan oil imports.XLS

ExxonMobil top ranked oil company of the world - PIW

PIW has ranked ExxonMobil as the 1st private oil company in the world (overall 2nd). Royal Dutch Shell has been ranked the 2nd private oil company in the world (overall 5th) losing its positions last year to Exxon Mobil. BPAmoco has been ranked the 3rd private oil company in the world (overall 6th). BP traditionally was ranked 4th after Mobil. Chevron has been ranked the 4th private oil company in the world (overall 8th) and TotalFinaElf has been ranked the 5th private oil company in the world (overall 10th).  ChevronTexaco merger will gain the 8th position.

Saudi Arabian VELA is ranked 1st when including the state owned companies and National Iranian Oil Company (NIOC) 4th Pemex 7th and Pertamina the 11th oil company of the world.

Looking at refinery capacity the biggest is ExxonMobil with 6.4 mbd representing 7.9% of world refinery capacity of 81.44 mbd and 2nd Shell with 3.212 mbd refinery capacity representing 3.9% of world capacity. The 13 biggest refiners (those having above 1.5 mbd capacity on PIW’s list) have altogether 50.4 mbd capacity or 62% of world capacity.

The corresponding figures for the oil companies and an update of refinery capacity expansions is found at http://www.intertanko.com/pubupload/refinery.XLS

Record VLCC fixing in 2000 – Marinav Shipping and Trading (MST), Geneva

A record of 113 U/VLCCs from PG/Red Sea have been reported fixed with laycan December according to MST.  Totally 1,352 VLCCs have been fixed with laycan year 2000, which is more than 13% above the level for 1999.  When looking at the largest charterers, the ten largest charters according to MST were:

1/ VELA 33.2 mil ts, 96 fixtures, down 6 fixtures

2/ Shell 28.9 mil ts, 105 fixtures, down 2

3/ S-Oil 24.6 mil ts, 94 fixtures, up 10

4/ XOM 19.0 mil ts, 66 fixtures, up 15

5/ SK 16.2 mil ts, 62 fixtures, up 8

6/ Hyundai 15.1 mil ts, 57 fixtures, up 18

7/ Bayoil 14.5 mil ts, 50 fixtures, up 20

8/ Stentex 12.8 mil ts, 51 fixtures, up 2

9/ UNIPEC 12.5 mil ts, 49 fixtures, up 25

10/ CPC 11.3 mil ts, 44 fixtures, down 4

http://www.intertanko.com/pubupload/VLCC fixtures by charterers PG Red Sea.XLS

MARINAV Geneva: http://www.microspacesystems.com/mst/r16pb.htm

The 10 largest charters represent some 50% of the total number of VLCC fixtures from PG/Red Sea

The list shows that Chinese UNIPEC has doubled the number of fixtures to 49 VLCC fixtures, reflecting the strong increase in Chinese oil imports. Chinese oil consumption rose by 7% in 1999 and the same growth is expected this year. Chinese oil production is not expected to increase.  We also see that strong increases in the activity of Korean charterers.  Outside the list we also see thee Reliance has almost quadrupled VLCC chartering activity since last year reflecting the new refinery at Jamnagar in India.

We also notice that whereas Shell paid on average 48.1 WS points in 1999, the average for 2000 was 108.  XOM also paid 48 last year but this year had to pay on average 112 WS points.