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Sunday, January 21, 2018

MARKET INFORMATION

World economic prospects remain relatively bright

According to the OECD December 2000 Economic Outlook, global economic growth peaked during the first half of 2000. Economic prospects for 2001 and 2002 remain relatively bright despite higher oil prices and a weakening in many equity markets.

Percentage increase in real GDP over previous years:

U.S.: 2000 (+5.2), 2001 (+3.5), 2002 (+3.3)

Japan: 2000 (+1.9), 2001 (+2.3), 2002 (+2.0)

EU: 2000 (+3.4), 2001 (+3.0), 2002 (+2.7)

Percentage increase in total world trade over previous years:

2000 (+13.3), 2001 (+9.7), 2002 (+8.0)

Due to the reduction in oil intensity of OECD economies by nearly 50% since the early 1970s, the macroeconomic impact of higher oil prices is much lighter now. During 2000, the total OECD area is likely to suffer a real income loss of 0.5% of GDP due to the high oil prices. The corresponding loss of real income for the OECD was 2.75% in 1974 and 2.5% in 1979-80. The main beneficiaries of the 2000 oil price hike, the OPEC countries, are estimated to have had additional oil export revenues of USD 80-100 billion in 2000.

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