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Thursday, October 18, 2018

MARKET INFORMATION

OPEC oil production cut

OPEC has decided to cut production by 1.5 mbd. Lorentzen & Stemoco does not believe the cut is sufficient to maintain the oil price. They say that “even if USD 20 per barrel for the OPEC basket is the “unofficial” OPEC price target, we think that OPEC will have to cut further to defend this price level. Despite the present cold spell in the US, the winter is over as regards additional demand for Middle East OPEC crude”.  Poten & Partners estimates that a minimum production cut of 1.5m bpd will result in a 1m bpd drop in Persian Gulf outputs, leaving approximately 15 VLCCs unemployed each month - 13% of the total average monthly spot fixtures

A big question mark is the future Iraqi oil production that was only 1.3 mbd in December according to PIW, down from 3.0 mbd in November.

Please click here to view the graph

Plotting the way ahead

Chairman Westye Høegh’s article in Lloyd's Shipping Economist December 2000.

The Chairman creates a tanker scenario for 2010 (comments invited and please click here to read the article

Net tanker fleet increase of 2.4% in 2000, 18% of the fleet on order

The tanker and combined carrier fleet increased by 7.3 million dwt to 309.6 million dwt during 2000. Worth noticing below is that currently close to 26% of the Suezmax fleet is on order.
10-60,000 dwt: –0.1 m dwt or –0.2%, on order: 6.4 m dwt (10.7% of fleet)
60-80,000 dwt: +0.4 m dwt or 2.7%, on order: 0.8 m dwt (5.2% of fleet)
80-120,000 dwt: +1.2 m dwt or 2.4%, on order: 7.3 m dwt (14.4% of fleet)
120-200,000 dwt: +0.9 m dwt or 2.3%, on order: 10.6 m dwt (25.9% of fleet)
Above 200,000 dwt: +5.4 m dwt or 4.4%, on order: 29.3 m dwt (22.8% of fleet)
Combined carriers: -0.5 m dwt or –3.3%, on order: none

For further information, please see the following links:

Please click here to download a fleet overview and graphs

Please click here to download orderbook details and graphs.