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Monday, October 15, 2018



OPEC has increased its projection for the call on OPEC crude and inventories in 2001 by 0.2 mbd to 27.6 mbd, the cartel said Monday 26 March 2001 in its latest Monthly Oil Market Report (MOMR). This month's adjustment results from a downward revision of 2001 non-OPEC supply by over 0.3 mbd to 49.4 mbd and 2001 world oil demand by 0.1 mbd to 77 mbd according to the OPEC report.

Continued growth in oil consumption the next 20 years according to EIA

The US Energy Administration has issued a new 20-year forecast for energy demand and forecast a continued parallel growth in oil and gas consumption. Natural gas is projected to be the fastest growing primary energy source worldwide, maintaining growth of 3.2% annually over the 1999-2020 period (nearly double the gas in use), more than twice the rate for coal.  Coal use worldwide is projected to increase by 1.7 billion short tons (36%) between 1999 and 2020.

Oil is expected to remain the dominant energy fuel throughout the forecast period, as it has been for decades. In the industrialised world, increases in oil use are projected primarily in the transportation sector, where there are currently no available fuels to compete with oil products.

Oil consumption is projected to account for the largest increment in worldwide carbon dioxide emissions. In 2020, emissions related to oil use are projected to be 1.9 billion metric tons carbon equivalent higher than the 1990 level. Emissions from natural gas use are expected to be 1.4 billion metric tons above 1990 levels in 2020 and emissions from coal use 0.7 billion metric tons above 1990 levels. Although natural gas use is expected to increase at a faster rate than oil use, it is a less carbon-intensive fuel. The Kyoto Protocol, if ratified and implemented, could influence future patterns of energy consumption, as well as carbon dioxide emissions. As of February 2001, 83 countries and the European Community had signed the treaty. It was ratified by 32 signatories but not by any of the Annex I countries that would be required to limit or reduce their greenhouse gas emissions relative to 1990 levels under the terms of the Protocol. The Protocol will not enter into force until the “ninetieth day after the date on which not less than 55 Parties to the Convention, incorporating Annex I parties which accounted in total for 55% of the total carbon dioxide emissions for 1990 for that group, have deposited their instruments for ratification, acceptance, approval or accession.”

Carbon dioxide emissions in the industrialized Annex I countries alone are projected to grow to 3,475 million metric tons carbon equivalent in 2010 and 3,841 million metric tons in 2020, from 2,758 million metric tons in 1990.

In the reference case, EIA project oil consumption in the US to increase annually on average 1.3%, industrialised W Europe and Asia 0.5%, Japan by 0.3% and total industrialised world 1.1% in the next 20 years. Oil consumption in the non-industrialised world is projected to increase annually by on average 3.7% in the next 20 years. China and India are projected to be two of the locomotives in the oil demand increase, with 4.3% and 5.4% respectively over the last 20 years. The population in these two countries is projected to increase by a total of some half-a-billion people. (Population in Eastern Europe is forecast to decline.)

The reference case assumes an annual world GNP growth of on average 3.2%, 3.1% in the US, 2.3% in Europe and 5% in the developing countries.

OPEC oil consumption in the reference case is assumed to increase from 29.3 mbd in 1999, 35.4 mbd in 2005, 41.6 mbd in 2010, 49.9 mbd in 2015 and 59.3 mbd in 2020.

Non-OPEC oil production in the reference case is assumed to increase from 44.6 mbd in 1999, 49.4 mbd in 2005, 53.1 mbd in 2010, 56.7 mbd in 2015 and 60.0 mbd in 2020.