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Thursday, October 18, 2018


IEA reducing oil demand projections

First quarter 2001 oil demand increased by 1.1 mbd.  IEA says that persistently high oil prices and sluggish economies are likely to cap demand growth for the year at little more than 1.0 mbd.  World oil production fell by 0.9 mbd in April to 77.1 mbd.  OPEC supply was 0.56 mbd lower, even if Iraqi output increased by 0.28 mbd.  OECD oil production was down 0.27 mbd.

Before the Asian crisis, oil imports to S Korea used to be one of the main driving forces of the tanker market. However, Korean oil demand fell 4.4% in February and a preliminary 1.4% in March, according to IEA.  An increase in Chinese oil imports in 2000 (+6.6% to 4.79 mbd) was one of the most important factors in the tanker market. The year-on-year gain in February was 2.3%, compared with drops of 7.1% and 5.5% in January and December. IEA suggests that Chinese refineries have been drawing down storage in tanks that were reported to be brimming at year’s end.  Increased Indian crude oil imports, mainly due to increased refining capacity but also increased demand (+2.5% to 2.05 mbd), were a second major driving force in the tanker market in 2000.  IEA estimate 2001 demand to be 2.14 mbd.

Overall IEA has reduced its April estimate of oil demand in 2001 by 0.16 mbd to 76.54 mbd.  Demand last year has been raised by 0.14 mbd compared to previous estimates mainly due to a major upward revision in US data.  IEA project US oil demand to increase one per cent by 19.88 mbd in 2001

Click here to view quarterly demand development 1997-2001 in major consuming countries.

IEA expect non-OPEC oil production to increase by 0.59 mbd in 2001 to 46.48 mbd. Oil production is expected to increase by 0.16 mbd in the US and by 0.45 mbd in FSU, whilst in Europe it is expected to fall by 0.14 mbd

Click here for and overview of the world oil supply and demand development (annual and quarterly in tables and graphs) in the period 1994 to 2001

Click here to view selected 2001 quarterly oil demand forecasts


Middle East oil production development until 2020 – IEA/EIA

Both IEA in Paris and EIA in Washington (US Energy Administration) have issued long term demand forecasts until 2020.  EIA’s forecast for 2020 (119.6 mbd) is 5 mbd higher than the IEA forecast (114.7 mbd), but for 2010 the IEA forecast (95.8 mbd) is 0.8 mbd higher than the EIA forecast.

IEA, however, estimate a much greater dependence on the Middle East than EIA both in 2010 (30.5 mbd versus 28.5 mbd) and 2020 (46.5 mbd versus 41.5 mbd).  Oil imports from the Middle East are estimated to be 19 mbd in 2000.