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Saturday, January 20, 2018

MARKET INFORMATION

China’s net oil imports down 33% 1Q01/4Q00 – but up in April - IEA

According to IEA’s May report, Chinese crude oil imports dropped drastically in the 1st quarter of 2001 to 0.852 mbd, but doubled to record high 1.625 mbd in April (gross imports of 1.74 mbd minus exports of 0.115 mbd).  China represented 55% (0.3 mbd) of the world’s increased oil demand of 0.55 mbd in 2000. The country’s imports vary greatly from one month to another depending heavily on arbitrage windows. In April 2001 China took some 1.0 mbd from the Middle East (onethird from Oman) and 0.3 mbd from Africa, 0.15 mbd from Indonesia and 0.127 mbd from Vietnam.

Imports of heavy fuel oil have also surged from 0.192 mbd in 2000 to 0.308 mbd 1Q01 and 0.418 mbd in April.

IEA reports that the largest refineries in China continue to upgrade and expand with the latest proposal a tripling of crude capacity to 0.24 mbd at the Fujian refinery in south China.

Please click here for development in Chinese oil imports since 1999

 

Chemical trades up 1.0% in 2001 - Drewry

According to Drewry Quarterly, the growth rate in the chemical trades is slowing down from 5.3% in 1999, to 2.4% in 2000 and 1.0% in 2001. Organic chemicals are projected to increase by 1.5%, inorganic decline by 0.7%; vegetable and animal oil and fats up 1%, and others also up 1% in 2001. Please click here for development

 

US net oil imports up 0.5 mbd in 2001, 0.32 mbd in 2002 - EIA

According to EIA/DOE’s latest short-term outlook, US oil imports will continue to increase even though domestic oil production will stay at the year 2000 level of 5.83 mbd over the next couple of years.  The projection is based on an imported oil price of just over $26 per barrel.  The US “lower 48 states” oil production is expected to decline, whereas the oil production in Alaska (17.5% of total) is expected to increase by 4.2% in 2001 and 1.6% in 2002.

 

Non-OPEC production up in 2001 - IEA

The IEA monthly report shows a 0.57 mbd increase in non-OPEC production until May 2001, the biggest increases being in FSU (0.48 mbd) and in Mexico (0.16 mbd). OPEC production shows a steady decline from 28.4 mbd in March, 27.9 mbd in April and 27.5 mbd in May. Please click here to view this development, including tables and graphs

Relating to oil product demand, the IEA expect the U.S. to be the single largest source of growth in 2001. Half of the oil product demand growth in the first quarter of this year took place in the US.

 

Further fall in spot tanker freight rates

Only tanker product rates are keeping at a reasonable level. The Aframax rates that used to be the most promising are now the lowest. North Sea rates have come down to about USD 16,000 per day for a modern vessel, the lowest since the end of January 2000. It is worth noting that product tanker freight rates, which improved later than the crude tanker rates, are still quite strong. Regarding the Aframax rates, we have to go back to December 1999 to find a similar level.  7 December 1999 we recorded USD 14,841 per day, but then rates rocketed up to above USD 30,000 per day by 13 December 1999.

Please click here to view a graph showing this.

Please click here to view the daily development in WS rates with tables and graphs, since 1998 for most trades. Please

click here to view a graph showing this development.