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Thursday, July 19, 2018

MARKET INFORMATION

The US heats up the world - US DOE/EIA

US carbon dioxide emissions (CO2) from burning fossil fuels rose by 2.7% in 2000, increasing from 1,517 million tonnes of carbon (MMTC) in 1999 to 1,558 MMTC in 2000, according to preliminary estimates just released by the Energy Information Administration (EIA). The 2000 growth rate of 2.7% was the highest since 1996, when it was 3.6%. The large growth in energy-related CO2 emissions in 2000 can be attributed to a return to more normal weather, decreased hydroelectric power generation that was replaced by fossil-fuel power generation, and strong economic growth, which at 5.0% represents the highest annual growth rate experienced during the 1992 - 2000 economic expansion. CO2 emissions account for over 80% of U.S. greenhouse gas emissions and are a good indicator of the change that can be expected in total U.S. greenhouse gas emissions. The US represents some 40% of world’s CO2 emissions, but less than 5% of world population. US CO2 emission per capita is about 4.5 tonnes, compared to 2.4 in Europe, 2.8 in industrial Asia and 0.3 tonnes in the rest of the world.

FSU oil going increasingly to W Europe – BP Review

BP’s reviews are always welcome as they provide some unique statistics. We have filed these reviews since 1975. We have picked out one trend that is of particular interest to the tanker market, which is the Former Soviet Union (FSU) oil exports to W Europe. Until 1985 export figures for the Soviet Union and Central Europe and China were added together, but the Review has become more detailed over the last years. Now we can follow the exports from these areas separately, and Central Europe has become a separate import area. FSU oil exports to W Europe have increased from 1.2 mbd in 1985 to 1.6 mbd in 1990 and 1.9 mbd in 1996. The exports remained at this level for three years, but jumped to 2.3 mbd in 1999 and further to 2.5 mbd in 2000. We have also recorded that FSU exports to Central Europe increased from 0.5 mbd in 1995 to 0.8 mbd in 2000. Please click here to view the trend since 1975

Over the last couple of years we have also followed the Russian oil export from the Black Sea, the Baltic and the pipelines. Exports in the 1st quarter 2001 from the Baltic, the Black Sea and the pipelines are all above last year’s levels. Please click here to view 

The IEA report shows that seaborne oil exports from the FSU area increased from 2.66 mbd in 1999, to 3.18 mbd in 2000 and were 3.63 mbd in May 2001. Net FSU exports of products were 1.01 mbd in 1999, 1.24 mbd in 2000, and 11.41 mbd in May 2001. (Imports to this area were marginal.)

Dynamic shipping site – http://www.q88.com/

Shipping web sites are becoming increasingly advanced and Heidmar has used a great deal of resources to develop electronic communication within the Star/Dorado tanker pools and with the other market participants. Pool partners can even obtain voyage information and see the positions of all the vessels in the pool with the aid of the vessel tracking application Purplefinder. Pool partners also have live access to daily, two-weekly and monthly reports. Heidmar’s idea that transparency creates trust and facilitates teambuilding is also one that INTERTANKO has promoted for many years.

Of particular interest to INTERTANKO is the Q88, which originally was a pre-chartering questionnaire developed by INTERTANKO in 1988. At that time INTERTANKO aimed to create one standard questionnaire which would be of benefit to all. Q88 was therefore constructed to include all charterers’ needs and, to make it neutral, INTERTANKO’s name was omitted. In 1988 and later INTERTANKO made a great effort to visit brokers and charters to obtain acceptance for the questionnaire, but unfortunately only some French, Japanese charterers and Shell adopted it at the time. Later INTERTANKO was discouraged from updating it as OCIMF intended to make a replacement. It is, however, interesting and pleasing to see that Q88 has survived and has been developed.

The use of Q88.com will significantly improve the accuracy and efficiency with which shipowners can complete and distribute vessel questionnaires. This web site links 60 of the currently required questionnaires to the OCIMF VPQ file. This procedure allows for the automatic completion of the majority of the information required by questionnaires directly from the database. In addition the web site allows the user to search the database for specific information about particular vessels. http://www.q88.com/

Aframax orderbook increased by 43 ships since January – shipbroker report

The tanker orderbook has increased by 5.8 mil dwt since January. The strongest increase has been for Aframaxes, where it has increased by 43 ships to 1154 tankers or 12.3 mil dwt. The VLCC orderbook has, on the other hand, declined from 98 to 91 ships. Please click here to view the complete development.

The Panamax Gap - OTII

Looking at freight rates for AG to Japan - CL/UL and a 50,000 dwt Caribs to USAC – FO, the rates were at the same level in early May this year. Since then the 50,000 dwt FO has declined whereas the 55,000 dwt CL increased until mid June and the gap between these two trades increased to more than 70 WS points. However, since then the rates for this trade have also declined, according to Online Tanker Industry Index (OTII). Please click here to view the development.

Low business confidence in Japan – Tankan Report

The Tankan survey, which is carried out four times a year asking 9,000 Japanese managers about the prospects for the next 3-6 months, now gives the worst result since 1999. The managers are less optimistic than three months ago and believe the Japanese economy is already in a recession. However, they believe in a small improvement late summer due to increased sales to the US.