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Tuesday, October 16, 2018


Oil demand continues to be revised downwards – IEA

The increase in oil demand for 2001 has now been revised downwards to 0.5 mbd this year, but a turn round in the US economy is expected to cause oil demand to rebound to an increase of 0.8 mbd next year. North American oil demand is expected to increase only by 0.07 mbd in 2001, but to increase by 0.24 in 2002. European oil demand is expected to decline marginally by 0.05 mbd in 2001, and to increase by 0.09 mbd in 2002.

The strongest demand growth of 0.21 mbd to 4.98 mbd is to be found in China and Middle East (+0.16 mbd). Korean demand is expected to decline marginally by 0.03 mbd to 2.10 in 2001 and is expected to be 2.12 mbd in 2002. Indian oil demand is projected to be up by 0.05 mbd to 2.05 in 2001 and further to 2.13 in 2002.

These small increases in demand will mean that most of it will be supplied by non OPEC countries, 0.59 mbd in 2001 and 0.74 mbd in 2002, according to the International Energy Agency (IEA).  This means OPEC production will be rather flat, assuming a small stock build this year.

OPEC crude production capacity including Iraq (with an expected decline of 0.2 mbd to 2.2 mbd in 2002) is projected to increase by 0.6 mbd in 2002 to 32.2 mbd. IEA estimated OPEC production in 2000 to be 30.8 mbd and in June 2001 28.45 mbd.

Please click here to view the OPEC oil production development 1990-June 2001

Please click here to view the development in oil supply and demand since 1997, including the IEA 2002 estimate.

UK North Sea oil production increasing – PIW

According to Petroleum Intelligence Weekly (PIW), UK oil production this year increased by 0.203 mbd during the first half this year compared to the second half of 2000 and will continue to increase by 0.283 mbd during the second part of 2001 (over 1H01) to 2.751 mbd. Norwegian oil production will also increase during the same periods, but only marginally. Including also the small North Sea producers, oil production is set to increase by 0.318 mbd during the second part of 2001 (over 1H01) to 6.496 mbd.  The reason for the increase is that four UK and one Norwegian oil field started up in the first six months of 2001 and by mid-year, four other UK fields had returned from outages.  A further 12 new fields are, according to PIW, due to start before the end of the year.

Further US stock increase - EIA

US crude oil stocks rose 7.0 million barrels (MMB) to end the week at 314.8 MMB. As of 13 July, crude oil stocks are 9.5 percent higher than this time last year but 0.5 percent lower than the five-year average.

US total distillate stocks increased for the fifth consecutive week, climbing to 119.1 (MMB) on July 13, 2001, 9.7 percent above the year-ago level.