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Friday, April 20, 2018

MARKET INFORMATION

  • US oil imports record high
  • Declining Chinese demand in 2001
  • Soaring Russian HFO exports
  • New Global Freight Forwards Market Report
  • US oil imports record high – American Petroleum Institute (API)

    US products imports January to July amounted to 2.62 mbd compared to 2.16 in 2000 and the average since 1994 of 2.03. However, imports have plunged gradually since the January level of 3.33 mbd, and February level of 2.98 mbd.

    US crude oil imports over the same period were 9.17 mbd compared to 8.93 mbd in 2000 and the average since 1994 of 8.12. However, since 1994 it has been June-August that have been the strongest import months, all with an average of 8.5 mbd over the period 1994-2001. This year imports have peaked in April (9.65 mbd) and May (9.43 mbd). On average over the period 1994-2001, December (7.8 mbd), January (7.5 mbd), and February (7.4 mbd), have been the months with the lowest imports.

    European crude and products imports January-May were marginally lower than last year and have historically been strongest towards the end of the year. Japanese crude oil imports were marginally higher whereas products imports were marginally lower January-June 2001 than for the same period in 2000.

    Download our full overview of US/European/Japanese oil imports

     

    Declining Chinese demand in 2001 - Petroleum Intelligence Weekly

    Official figures show that crude imports were down 1.2% in the first half of the year — and would have fallen further without a 1.6 mbd buying spurt in June. Net imports plus domestic crude production suggest demand growth of nearly 2% in the year to June. But Sinopec and PetroChina are estimated to have raised product inventories over the period by around 0.135 mbd, implying a 1% contraction in apparent demand. Analysts still anticipate a 3%-4% increase in Chinese oil demand this year — barely a third of the 1999 rate — which translates into growth of 0.140-0.190 mbd. China was one of the main driving forces in the tanker market in 2000, and UNIPEC was the fifth largest VLCC charterer.

     

    Soaring Russian HFO exports - Petroleum Intelligence Weekly

    Fuel oil exports soared in July to a three-year high of 0.772 mbd up 11% from 0.700 mbd in June. Black Sea exports were up 41% from June at 0.185 mbd, accounting for most of the change. Most of the extra shipments came from the Ukrainian port of Odessa and the Georgian port of Batumi, as Russian exporters diverted cargoes to take advantage of more attractive Black Sea fob prices. The Baltic Sea port of St. Petersburg increased shipments by 13% to 0.249 mbd from 0.221 mbd the previous month. July gas oil exports climbed 11%, supported by heavy German buying, and averaged 0.533 mbd.

     

    New Global Freight Forwards Market Report

    Last week typified the cross North Sea Aframax market. As charterers clambered to fix tonnage to cover end month positions, rates soared by 73.5%. There is a danger, particularly in a market as volatile as this one, that a decision to fix a ship today rather than tomorrow or to wait until tomorrow to fix in a ship to cover a cargo could make a vast difference. Hedging against a monthly average will smooth out the volatility and will secure earnings in a similar way to a time charter. There is, however, the possibility that it might not be possible to secure a rate that is acceptable for the whole month position and therefore the risk of staying uncovered. The alternative is to take positions (however small) against shorter periods - settlements against weekly averages mean that knowledge of the spot market can be used with much greater effect on the FFA market. From 20 August Global Freight Forwards Ltd. aim to report bid/offer spreads for CFD's on route 7.

    Visit the Globa Freight Forwards web site