Analysis by Cambridge Energy Research Associates’ points to global production capacity rising from 88.7m barrels per day (bpd) in 2006 to 110m bpd in 2015.

This conclusion is based on CERA’s examination of actual activity and production data covering existing fields, and 360 new projects – 250 new non-Opec and 110 new Opec development projects – expected to start production by 2010. The share of unconventional liquids, including  gas-related and extra-heavy oils, is forecast to grow from less than 25% to almost 40% by 2015, as companies diversify in a high oil price environment.

CERA chairman Daniel Yergin said the overall capacity growth “would accommodate rising world oil demand so long as there are no major disruptions in the actual flow of oil, for political or other reasons”.

The current worldwide aggregate disruption in production is estimated at 2.3m bpd, or about 2.6% of total world capacity. 

CERA’s study challenges the notion that the world is about to run out of oil. The organisation’s “reference case” predicts strong potential growth in both the Opec (7.6m bpd) and non-Opec (5.7m bpd) sectors to 2010.

Opec capacity is forecast to expand by a further 5.3m bpd between 2010 and 2015. Growth in non-Opec capacity is expected to slow sharply in this period to 2.7m bpd. These levels of growth depended on continuing high rates of investment, CERA said.  Despite today’s aggregate disruption of 2.3m bpd of production because of problems in the Gulf of Mexico, Nigeria, Venezuela, Iraq and on the North Slope of Alaska, CERA said total productive capacity continued to grow.

“The ability of E&P (exploration and production) companies to collectively grow global production capacity at a rate allowing a comfortable supply-demand buffer that will absorb supply disruptions and manage these risks will be a critical factor in ensuring global energy security,” it added.