Not Logged In, Login,

Wednesday, October 17, 2018

Commercial analysis




Stockpiling on the cards as OPEC expects oil supply to outstrip demand

The Paris-based International Energy Agency (IEA) has revised downwards its forecast of global oil demand for 2014 and 2015 for the second month in a row. Oil demand for 2014 was forecast to be 92.68 mbd in August and is forecast at 92.4 in October, while oil demand for 2015 was expected to be 94.00 mbd in August and is forecast at 93.53 in October. IEA says that specific economic concerns...... Login to view this article


Presentation: Tanker shipping – key driving forces

This week, INTERTANKO's Senior Manager – Research and Projects, Erik Ranheim, presented to a gathering of the organisation's Members in Copenhagen at INTERTANKO's European Panel meeting.   His presentation, entitled Tanker shipping – key driving forces , covered various topics, including:   ·          The state of the industry ·          The main driving force ·          Oil supply and demand ·...... Login to view this article


Middle East/OPEC spot sailings

The OPEC monthly report includes figures for spot chartering and tanker sailings from the Middle East. From Clarkson fixture data we can derive that, since 2001, September has been the third slowest VLCC fixture month (125.6 fixtures on average after June (124.9) and December (116.6). We are now entering October which has been, on average, the busiest VLCC fixture month of the year – 21.8% abov...... Login to view this article


Tanker supply and demand

There were bullish expectations for the tanker market for this autumn. So far the development has been the opposite of what many different analysts predicted because we were in a contango** situation with regard to the oil price. This could be because of slippage in the delivering of newbuildings, because the market cycle had turned or maybe because the US is to start exporting oil.     The...... Login to view this article


Greece has fewer owners but a bigger fleet

This week, our friends at Lloyd’s List published an article we felt would be of general interest to Members. We thank Lloyd’s List for allowing us to distribute the article in its entirety to you. Begins GREEK-owned shipping capacity continues to expand but closer examination of the ownership of the fleet underlines a clear trend towards consolidation, according to a new study by Petrofin...... Login to view this article


Poten & Partners: Slip N’ Slide into Better Times... but watch the rocks and grit

US-based shipbroking company, and INTERTANKO Associate Member, Poten & Partners, through its periodic email bulletin, Poten Highlights , has released an article entitled Slip N’ Slide into Better Times... With their permission, we reproduce the article, dated 15 August, in its entirety here: Begins Slip N’ Slide into Better Times... but watch the rocks and grit Although the Caribbean market for...... Login to view this article


Products trades experience slight dip

Total products trades have declined slightly for the first five months of 2014 according to figures from the Paris-based International Energy Agency (IEA). Fewer products are coming from Europe, which is still by far the biggest source of import for the OECD area, representing about one third of the imports for the first part of 2014. More products are coming from the Former Soviet Union. After...... Login to view this article


OPEC market share falls

The US total crude oil production averaged an estimated 8.5 million barrels per day (mbd) in July, the highest monthly level of production since April 1987. US total crude oil production, which averaged 7.5 mbd in 2013, is expected to average 9.3 mbd in 2015. The 2015 forecast represents the highest annual average level of oil production since 1972. The increase in the US crude oil production,...... Login to view this article


Tanker incidents in the Baltic area

Last month, the Baltic Marine Environment Protection Commission – Helsinki Commission (HELCOM) published a report on shipping incidents in the Baltic area in 2012. There is a lot of tanker traffic between Russia and North Europe as Europe is the biggest receiver of Russian oil. Some 38% or 4.4 mbd of Europe’s crude oil import in 2013 came from Russia and the former Soviet Union (FSU), while jus...... Login to view this article


Stock building and its effects

There was good activity in the tanker market in June and July. At least part of the reason for this was that, according to the Paris-based International Energy Agency (IEA), OECD commercial holdings replenished by 88 mb over the second quarter, the largest quarterly build since 3Q06 and equating to 0.970 mb. Over the first half of the year inventories rebuilt by 104 mb clawing back a large chun...... Login to view this article


Scrapping, decommissioning and conversions

The physical tanker fleet has been growing since 2001, as seen in the graph below, as the “blue mountain” of deliveries has been continuously larger than the stack of bars showing sales for decommissioning and conversions. The period of time when a large number of tankers were sold for conversion ended in 2010, but there are still some tankers sold for conversion, in particular for offshore...... Login to view this article


Period chartering

In line with spot freight rates, period contract rates have moved up for VLCCs and the suezmaxes so far in 2014, but on average remained fairly flat for the other ship sizes as the graph below shows. The below graph shows that the projected number of contracts based on the first seven months of 2014 has declined strongly for the smallest size segment, but remains fairly stagnant for the other...... Login to view this article


Net oil import

There is increasing tension in the energy markets due to various boycotts and hostilities involving the main oil supply areas in the world.   The above graph shows a good picture of the oil world. At the top we see the Middle East as clearly the biggest net oil exporter being more than twice as large as the second biggest net oil exporting area, the Former Soviet Union (FSU), which is, in turn,...... Login to view this article


Oil demand expectations downrated in 2014 but expected to accelerate in 2015

The Paris-based International Energy Agency’s (IEA) estimate for oil demand in 2014 was downgraded and trimmed by 0.130 mbd to 92.7 mbd this month following weaker-than-expected mid-year economic data. However, global oil demand growth is forecast to accelerate to 1.4 mbd in 2015 as macroeconomic conditions improve. Preliminary estimates show US demand rising to approximately 18.8 mbd in May, i...... Login to view this article


Implications of declining US crude imports and moderating Chinese imports for tanker demand

The crude tanker market has had a more positive period in last couple of weeks, but it is still hard to say whether this is a permanent upswing or whether it is temporary factors that are driving the market. There is great tension in the energy market and important structural changes are taking place. New oil is expensive, contributing to drive up oil prices to a level where the harder-to-produ...... Login to view this article


Middle East tensions and their impact

Hostilities and crises in the Middle East are not news; there have been continuous hostilities and crises going on in one or more countries in this area throughout history. The president of the Council of foreign affairs, Richard Haass wrote in the Financial Times mid-June: “The only thing certain is the old Middle East is disintegrating. The question is what will take its place?” A probable...... Login to view this article


Refinery development, product balance and trade

According the latest medium term report from the Paris-based International Energy Agency (IEA), global refinery crude distillation (CDU) is set to increase by 7.7 mbd until 2019, which is about the same as the forecast increase in demand of oil. Some 95% is expected to come from non-OECD areas and upgrading and desulphurisation capacity is set to increase by 5.1 mbd and 4.2 mbd respectively. Th...... Login to view this article


IEA forecasts reduced oil trade

The Paris-based International Energy Agency’s (IEA) medium term market report issued this week says that it is hard to overstate the degree to which the North American oil supply boom has defied expectations. The baseline Canadian and US oil production for 2013 was 0.330 mbd higher than expected last year, 0.42 mbd higher than forecast in 2012, 2.2 mbd higher than anticipated in 2011 and 3.21...... Login to view this article


Spotlight on suezmaxes

You will remember that last week we looked at the aframax market – this week we turn our attention to suezmaxes. The graph below shows that there is a strong correlation between the freight rates in the aframax segment and the suezmax segment. The trade routes for the suezmax segment, however, appear to be more diversified than for aframaxes. An increasing number of suezmaxes are also loading i...... Login to view this article


Call on OPEC oil up 1.3 mbd 3Q14

According to the Paris-based IEA’s latest Oil Market Report, global oil demand is forecast to rise by 1.3 mbd in 2014, to 92.8 mbd, a modest acceleration on 2013 as the macroeconomic backdrop improves. Global oil demand is set to increase sharply from a low of 91.4 mbd in 1Q14 to a high of 94 mbd in 4Q14. Chinese oil demand is projected to increase by 0.355 mbd to 10.446 mbd up from 10.091 mbd ...... Login to view this article

Related Articles


Bill Box
Senior Manager, Commercial
P: +44 20 7977 7023