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Saturday, October 20, 2018

Oil exports from the Former Soviet Union

Overall oil exports from the Former Soviet Union (FSU) area have doubled since the year 2000 to a level of some 8.9 mbd in the first half of 2007. A number of developments have increased exports of petroleum products the most, from some 2 mbd in 2003 to 2.7 mbd in the first half 2007. 


 Crude oil exports from the Black Sea have remained quite steady over recent years at some 2.2 mbd.  Crude oil exports from the Baltic Sea increased strongly until 2004 when the new pipeline to Primorsk was opened, but have since levelled out at about 1.6 mbd.  But crude oil exports from new areas are also expanding.  Exports from the Baku - Tblisi – Ceyhan (BTC) pipeline have reached half-a-million barrels per day, as have exports via other routes including the pipeline from Kazakhstan to China and rail exports to China.


In addition, the projected Russian crude oil export pipeline to Primorsk may mean reduced supplies of Urals crude, Russia’s major export blend, via the Druzhba pipeline to refineries in Lithuania, Poland, Ukraine and the Czech Republic. Russia’s new planned pipeline link running 1,000-kilometres from Unecha, near the Russian-Belarussian border, to Primorsk, will deliver at least one million barrels of oil per day for export by tanker from the port of Primorsk on the Baltic Sea.


According to the International Energy Agency (IEA), Russian oil production growth in 2007 now comes in at 2.3% (+0.225 mbd), followed by 1.8% (+0.175 mbd) in 2008. Recent reports suggest that year-round Sakhalin 2 crude production could be attained earlier than the expected end-2008 date. The IEA expects Kazakhstan’s crude oil production to increase from some 1.05 mbd in June  2006 to 1.15 mbd in June 2007. The FSU is set to be the single-biggest contributor to non-OPEC supply growth between now and 2010, although the 1.4 mbd jump currently forecast is also subject to a great deal of uncertainty.


Contact: Erik Ranheim