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Saturday, October 20, 2018

Upward revision of 2008 oil demand - IEA

According to the (Paris-based) International Energy Agency (IEA), global oil product demand growth has been revised downwards by 0.060 million barrels per day (mbd) in 2007 to an average of 85.7 mbd (+1.1% over 2006). Following a reappraisal of ethane prospects in the Middle East, 2008 demand is revised up by 0.115 mbd to 87.8 mbd (+2.5%), with growth driven by the non-OECD countries, as well as by an assumption of normal weather in the OECD countries.  OECD oil product demand has been lowered marginally in both 2007 and 2008 (-0.051 mbd and -0.008 mbd respectively).


The changes for 2008 are primarily driven by a reassessment of petrochemical demand for LPG/ethane in the Middle East, notably in Saudi Arabia. Overall, non-OECD demand is seen averaging 36.5 mbd in 2007 (+3.1% on an annual basis) and 38.0 mbd in 2008 (+4.0%).



World oil supply rose 0.055 mbd in November to 86.5 mbd as output recovery in Mexico, China and Brazil offset lower OPEC supply. Non-OPEC supply is revised up by an average 0.050 mbd to 50.2 mbd in 2007 and 51.25 mbd in 2008, based on higher estimates for refinery processing gains. These offset downgrades of 0.095-0.140 mbd for non-OPEC oil production. 


November OPEC crude supply averaged 31.1 mbd, 0.180 mbd lower than October. Offshore maintenance in Abu Dhabi removed an estimated 0.4 mbd, offsetting increases from other producers. Early indications show rising supply in December, despite an unchanged OPEC output target. The call on OPEC crude and stock change is revised down by 0.1-0.2 mbd for 2007 but 0.1 mbd higher for 2008.


OECD industry stocks fell by 22.4 mb in October, lowering demand cover to 52.6 days, just below the five-year average. A sharp decline in European products led the stock draw-down, with a similar picture emerging in November.


Contact: Erik Ranheim