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Tuesday, December 12, 2017

China's ban on single hull tankers will have minimal impact, says broker

The market impact of the Chinese ban (with effect from the beginning of next year) on single hull tankers will be minimal, according to the Clarksons market analysis team.

 

Looking in particular at spot market activity, Clarksons has found that double hull vessels have already been accounting for 83% of all crude tanker fixture volumes discharging in China since January 2008. In fact this is an increasing trend, and since June 2009 double hulls account for an average of over 93% of spot market crude discharging in China.

 

This reflects the charterers' preference to reduce cargo risk ahead of government measures and in the light of a plentiful supply of suitable tonnage.

 

This year to date, a total of almost 100m tonnes of crude oil has been discharged in China from spot tankers, 84% on VLCCs, 8% on suezmaxes and 8% on aframaxes. In the past six months double sided vessels accounted for 2.5%, and fully single hull vessels for just over 4%, of crude oil spot cargo volumes discharging in China.

 

Clarksons predicts that the ban on single hull tankers into China will increase the demand for double hull tankers by just 2-3 VLCCs per annum and less than one aframax and suezmax per annum.

 

For graphs click here    

 

Contact: Bill Box