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Monday, July 16, 2018

Did you get it right? Competition results from Washington Tanker Event!

At the Annual Dinner in Rotterdam last year, all the guests were invited to submit their 12-month forecast for the tanker market, based on a VLCC AG – Japan Worldscale rate. At the time, VLs were trading at an abysmal WS 28 and the general consensus was that the market would improve over the next twelve months but it would not be “very good”.

Peter Swift announced the winner of the contest to the guests at the Annual Dinner on Wednesday 9 April when he revealed that he had asked a psychoanalyst to evaluate their answers.

He said that the analyst made the following conclusions based on his findings:

  • Nearly all the brokers taking part had placed their estimates firmly in the mid-range saying that it is clear they are collaborating to fix the market and can not be trusted.
  • Analysts can not be trusted either. They gave the widest range of predictions, clearly challenging their claims to know what is going on in the market.
  • Owners were obviously born pessimists. Their answers were all at the low end of the scale, as owner upon owner predicted doom and gloom.
  • Charterers can always be relied upon to disagree with owners. They mostly predicted high WS rates.
  • Bankers and financiers were also predicting high rates.  Clearly all in trouble if the market was not up there.

The WS rate for 9 April was WS 81.25.

Ronald Meuldijk of Inchape Shipping Services won the prize by forecasting AG-Japan at WS 81. In second place was Ian White of the International Tanker Owners Pollution Federation (ITOPF).

However neither involved were in the day-to-day commercial tanker market.  This tendency for outsiders to guess better than the experts continued in the analysis of shipping's couples.   According to the psychoanalyst evaluation, while the husbands turned out to be much more optimistic than their wives, their wives turned out to be much more accurate.