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Tuesday, December 12, 2017

80% of oil demand increase involves three areas

Chinese product demand development

 

Demand kbd

Annual Change kbd

Annual Change%

Product

2005

2006

2007

2006

2007

2006

2007

LPG & Ethane

650

633

680

-17

47

-2.6%

7.4%

Naphtha

707

825

911

118

86

16.7%

10.4%

Motor Gasoline

1,131

1,170

1,239

39

69

3.4%

5.9%

Jet & Kerosene

246

280

303

34

23

13.8%

8.2%

Gas/DieselOil

2,239

2,338

2,503

99

165

4.4%

7.1%

Residual Fuel Oil

778

776

791

-2

15

-0.3%

1.9%

Other Products

943

1,135

1,218

192

83

20.4%

7.3%

Total Products

6,694

7,157

7,645

463

488

6.9%

6.8%

Source: Demand International Energy Agency - Oil Market Report

 

 

In its last monthly Oil Market Report, the (Paris-based) International Energy Agency (IEA) revised Chinese oil demand upwards. China now represents 33% of the estimated oil demand increase in 2007, the U.S. 26% and the Middle East 21%. This means that 80% of the demand is represented just by three areas. The rest of the 1.49 mbd demand increase is made up by "other Asia" +0.20 mbd, Latin America +0.11 mbd and Africa +0.08 mbd. Despite healthy economic growth, oil demand in Europe is projected to decline by -0.10 mbd and Japan by -0.14 mbd.

 

Oil supply in China is also projected to increase marginally by 0.1 mbd to 3.77 mbd in 2007. At the same time non-OPEC oil production is projected to increase by 1.0 mbd in 2007, with the biggest increase of 0.51 mbd expected from the Former Soviet Union. Oil production is also expected to increase marginally by 0.08mbd in the U.S.

 

Contact: Erik Ranheim