Security in Middle East - updated 27 June 2025

27 June 2025

Update following tentative ceasefire between Israel and Iran

Much has occurred since last week’s weekly news and the following timeline may provide some insight into the situation:

13 June Israel launches comprehensive attacks across Iran with the stated aim to disable its military nuclear programme. Targets for the 200+ airstrikes included heads of the armed forces and nuclear scientific community.

In response, Iran launched 100+ drones, all reported to have been intercepted.

15 June Houthis fire missiles at Israel.
16 June Iran fires a series of missiles and US diplomatic compound in Tel Aviv damaged.
22 June US air strikes on nuclear sites with the nuclear infrastructure severally damaged, however, the fate of the enriched uranium is unknown.
23 June Iranian strikes against US military in Doha. The attack was well telegraphed and no injuries resulted from the attack.
24 June ‘ceasefire’ announced by President Trump.
27 June ceasefire continues to hold despite a shaky start. Both Israel and Iran declare a victory.

At the time of writing, there have been no physical attacks or direct threats against any ship in the region and traffic continues to flow freely through the Strait of Hormuz.

The Joint Maritime Information Centre (JMIC) released a circular number 015-25 on 26 June, advising that:

JMIC assesses a sustained period of inactivity and strengthening of the ceasefire agreement will stabilize maritime tension in the Arabian Gulf.

With regard to the Houthis, they assess that:

There is no indication the Houthis will recommence general attacks in the maritime area but have emphasized their commitment to continuing military operations against Israel until the aggression on Gaza stops and the siege is lifted. JMIC assesses the threat to Israel and U.S. shipping remains HIGH in the Southern Red Sea and Western Gulf of Aden.

The latest JMIC circular 016-2025 issued 27 June goes on to state:

As of Friday, June 27, 2025, the regional threat level in the Middle East is assessed as Significant, as specific areas still face threats. This assessment is driven by a complex interplay of recent high-stakes events, ongoing tensions, and inherent instability. Commercial maritime traffic through the Strait of Hormuz has returned to normal. Regional electronic interference remains which may have an impact on commercial shipping. JMIC assesses a sustained period of inactivity and strengthening of the ceasefire agreement will reduce maritime tension in the Arabian Gulf.

Overall, jamming and spoofing of satellite navigation systems (GNSS) in the Persian Gulf and approaches to the Strait of Hormuz continues. Navigators should be prepared to not rely on GNSS satellite position signal in the area and instead be ready to conduct navigation through terrestrial and dead-reckoning means, as this may be necessary for a prolonged time before the signal is restored.

Fake AIS echoes were reported in the region which – when placed in the vicinity of the own vessel’s course line – may induce navigators into actions desirable by the attackers. Collision-avoiding action should never be based on AIS data but only verified radar and visual observations.

INTERTANKO’s advice of 20 June remains valid and so in the absence of any specific threat against shipping, INTERTANKO would advise the following:

• Continue to apply the Best Management Practices for Maritime Security (note, use the updated version as BMP5 has been withdrawn). The BMP MS can be downloaded from here: https://www.maritimeglobalsecurity.org/geography/global/
• For the region (Gulf of Oman, Strait of Hormuz, Persian Gulf, Gulf of Aden, Bab el-Mandeb, and Southern Red Sea), all vessels are recommended to:
• Ensure reporting procedures are being complied with as per the ship security plans;
• Ensure that the crew understand and practise the procedures to be applied in the event of a security incident (drone attack, helicopter boarding etc);
• Ensure the JMIC bridge procedure cards are available on the bridge and crew are familiar with them;
• Navigate as far from Iran and Yemen as possible, whilst in compliance with the collision regulations; The MSTC-ME may be considered but navigation and collision avoidance care is necessary in congested waters especially south of Abu Musa Island.
• Treat GNSS data as potentially impacted and unreliable; and
• Report any suspicious activity to UKMTO.

During this period, INTERTANKO’s Secretariat has maintained close links with the regional militaries, relevant national entities, and coordinated with other industry groups, to ensure the most up-to-date guidance available.

We will update Members and forward advice as and when more information becomes available on any specific threats.

Contact: Phil Belcher

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